Week 7 NFL Picks: Last-Minute Expert Bets Against the Spread

Every week on Sunday morning, our betting experts come together for their last-minute NFL picks on "Convince Me."

Here's everything you need to know about Week 7 NFL picks as we get closer and closer to kickoff, with the latest, updated odds for Sunday. And for more NFL picks for Week 7, check our NFL best bets today!

Week 7 NFL Picks: Last-Minute Expert Bets Against the Spread

Raybon: Justin Herbert is always going to keep you in a game. He might not win it, but he's going to keep you in it. At the end of the day, this Chargers team is almost never done more than a possession at the end of regulation. That's been true the last four meetings against the Chiefs, where they've lost by 3, 3, 3 and 6, and the 6 was in overtime.

This Kansas City team is just 14-27, 34% against the spread, when favored by more than a field goal since early November 2020. Meanwhile, in his career, Herbert of an underdog of more than a field goal is 10-1 against the spread.

The Chargers have not lost by more than 3 points in 2023; only 3 of their 11 losses have been by more than 6 points since 2022. Herbert is 5-1 against the spread against the Chiefs, as well. So give me the Chargers at +6.

Hunter: This is simple: Fade Desmond Ridder in the first half. He's 0-10 against the spread in his NFL career, and he's 0-12 dating back to college. The Falcons are also 30th in first-half scoring this season, averaging six points in the first half. Six!

So while I do like the Falcons on the full-game spread here, this trend is clearly real. Our lead researcher has been telling me every week to bet it, and now I'm telling you to bet it. Right now, fading Ridder is as close to free money as you can get in betting (even though there's no such thing as a lock).

I'm gonna keep riding this train until it breaks. I love this line for the Bucs, especially at -0.5.

Koerner: This is a good time to fade the 5-1 Lions. They've faced the fifth easiest schedule to date, including when they faced the Chiefs in Week 1 without Travis Kelce and Chris Jones. That win has only inflated their public perception.

Detroit's going to be without David Montgomery, and the Lions are certainly going to miss him on early downs especially. That's going to put more on Jared Goff's plate, and he's struggled throughout his career outdoors, so with the wind, that's going to make it even tougher.

On the other hand, I think the Ravens are a good buy-low team. They've dealt with a ton of injuries, especially on the offensive line, but this is the healthiest they've been all season. Plus, the Ravens stick out in our luck rankings this week, which is just more confirmation that the perceptions of these teams might be off in both directions.