The Dallas Stars (29-14-9) and St. Louis Blues (19-24-9) meet in the NHL tonight. Puck drop is set for 8:00 p.m. EST at Enterprise Center in St. Louis, Mo. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN+.
The Stars are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 5.5 (52-cents/ 49-cents). The Stars are a 59-cent favorite to win outright, while the Blues are 42-cent to pull off the upset on Fanatics Markets.
Let's get into my Stars vs. Blues predictions and NHL picks.
Stars vs. Blues Odds, Pick
- Stars vs. Blues Spread: Stars -1.5 (37-cents), Blues +1.5 (65-cents)
- Stars vs. Blues Over/Under: 5.5 (52-cents / 49-cents)
- Stars vs. Blues Moneyline: Stars 59-cents, Blues 42-cents
Stars vs. Blues Preview
Dallas Stars
Dallas’ most recent game came against its very opponent tonight in the Blues, and the Stars came away with a 3-2 home victory.
For as good as the Stars have been this season, they’re beginning to hit a minor lull in the schedule. But with the Olympics coming up soon, it’s probably not the worst time to take the foot off the gas.
Over their past 10 games, Dallas has gone 4-5-1 and continues to duke it out with the Wild for the second spot in the Central Division.
During that stretch, the Stars’ 5-on-5 play certainly has taken a hit with an offensive expected goals rate of a 48 xGF% – good enough for 11th-worst since January 6. Luckily, though, their defense has held up with a 2.49 xGA/60.
The offense has been very spotty, which is unlike what we’re used to seeing. One game, they’ll throw six goals on the board, and the next, they’ll get shut out.
One of the biggest problems here has been the goaltending and Jake Oettinger is not playing like an Olympic netminder right now. In his past 10 starts, he’s in the bottom tier of goalies, playing to a -3.1 GSAx and an .877 SV%.
St. Louis Blues
The Blues aren’t out of the playoff race just yet, but their constant inconsistencies warrant me from eliminating them altogether.
Defensively, I’ve certainly been encouraged with what I’ve seen, but on the offensive end, this team has lost its identity.
We’re not getting the kind of season-long play we’re used to getting from guys like Jordan Kyrou and Pavel Buchnevich, while both Robert Thomas and Dylan Holloway continue to recover from injury.
To Kyrou’s credit, though, we’re starting to see the points rack up, especially potting two goals in the 5-4 shootout loss to the Kings.
Lastly, another major problem for St. Louis is its goaltending – or lack thereof.
The Blues are rolling out a tandem of Jordan Binnington and Joel Hofer, and while Hofer seems to be the better goalie, he and Binnington are sharing starts.
With Hofer starting against L.A. on Sunday, I would expect Binnington to go tonight, which spells trouble for the Blues. Binnington has been abhorrent all season, playing like one of the league’s worst goalies with a -9.7 GSAx in his past 10 starts along with an .854 SV%.
Stars vs. Blues Prediction
On paper, this is a clear mismatch, but due to the Stars' volatility, I’m steering clear of leaning toward any side.
If we’re getting an Oettinger vs Binnington rematch, I don’t anticipate it being the chess match we got on Friday.
Granted, both teams have been playing solid defense down the stretch, but Dallas has a tremendously high ceiling and has gone cold scoring on the road as of late.
One way or another, positive regression is going to come back. Jason Robertson is among the league’s best goal scorers, and pairing him with Roope Hintz is always a deadly combo.
I’m taking the over here.
Pick: Over 5.5
