DraftKings NHL Up 2 Promo is Proven +EV Bet
(Photo by Danielle Parhizkaran/The Boston Globe via Getty Images)
Pictured: Dallas Stars
DraftKings has begun to run an interesting NHL promo for the doldrums of mid-February, adding some much-needed betting excitement amid this dearth of action.
DraftKings is offering its players an "NHL Early Win" promo, where bettors are paid out if a team goes up 2+ goals for some bettors and 3+ goals for other bettors.
Bettors must place a single pre-game wager on an NHL moneyline using the early win token to be eligible for the promotion. If the team that is wagered on goes up by 2+ goals at any point of the game, the bet wins. The maximum wager is $50.
Overall, it's a fantastic promotion. For instance, during the NHL's 10-game slate on Monday, two teams — the Vancouver Canucks and Calgary Flames — had a two-goal lead and ended up losing the game. The New York Islanders also gave up a three-goal lead to the New York Rangers during their Stadium Series game on Sunday.
The most basic principle of this promotion is to wager on the underdog with the highest total. The reason is that games with more goals are more likely to feature a team giving up a two-goal lead. You'd pick the underdog because of the higher payout, coupled with the fact that underdogs are more likely on the aggregate to give up a two-goal lead and lose the game.
The Ottawa Senators at +220 odds at DraftKings tonight would fit the bill, but that's not necessarily the highest expected value play because there are better prices on the Senators at different sportsbooks. For instance, at WynnBet, you can nab the Senators at +245 odds.
The best way to go here for the two and three-goal promotions is likely the Dallas Stars at +120 odds at DraftKings. It's the underdog moneyline with the most +EV.
The cheekiest way to run this promotion? Hedging the Stars with the Rangers ML at its best price. Your downside will be roughly 2.5% of your original DraftKings wager, but there is potential to win gobs if Dallas goes up by two goals and ultimately blows the lead.
This option also opens up the opportunity for you to live hedge on the Stars to guarantee yourself money.
It's a high-level approach to this promo — you'll need to know what you're doing.
But if you're looking to just let it ride, go with the Stars on the moneyline.
Check out our new user DraftKings promo code offer before placing your bets on tonight's NHL action.
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