Freedman’s Favorite Prop Bet (Jan. 11): Will Sebastian Aho Take 3 Shots on Goal?
Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Sebastian Aho
- Matthew Freedman is kicking off 2019 with a new series featuring his favorite prop bet of each day.
- On Friday, he looks at the Hurricanes-Sabres game and the shots on goal prop for Carolina winger Sebastian Aho.
I had a great 2018 betting on props, thanks primarily to our FantasyLabs Tools, so for 2019 I am publishing a quick-n’-dirty daily piece in which I highlight one of my favorite props for the day.
A quick note on props: When a line is terribly wrong, I usually don’t even get the chance to write about it, because the line will have corrected by the time most people read the piece.
So the props I’ve written about this year haven’t truly been my favorites or the ones in which I’ve most heavily invested. Rather, they’ve been ones that offer an edge but not one that’s obvious or large enough to be immediately exploited by the market.
That distinction might not matter to readers, but I want to be transparent. For more information on my research process and the resources I use, see the master list of my 2019 prop bets.
2019 Year-to-Date Record
4-6-1, -1.9 Units
- Golf: 1-1-0, +0.25 Units
- NFL: 1-2-0, -0.85 Units
- NBA: 0-2-0, -2.0 Units
- NHL: 2-0-1, +1.7 Units
- NCAAF: 0-1-0. -1.0 Units
Freedman’s Favorite Prop Bet for Friday, Jan. 11: Sebastian Aho Over/Under 2.5 Shots on Goal
The Pick: Under 2.5 (+125)
Yesterday I highlighted Andre Drummond … and then Blake Griffin was declared out. No dice. For the year, I’m 0-2 on Drummond props and 4-4-1 on all other props. No more Drummond for the rest of the year. At least for the rest of the week.
Today we’re returning to the ice.
In the Hurricanes-Sabres game (7:30 p.m. ET), Sebastian Aho has a prop I think is exploitable.
In the FantasyLabs NHL Models, Aho has 2.25 shots over the past 15 days, and in his past five games he’s put up shot totals of 2, 3, 1, 2 and 1.
The Hurricanes are playing their second game in as many days, third in four and sixth in nine. They’re just coming off a three-game road trip. Worn out, they could have slower puck movement and be less aggressive in attacking the net.
In the NHL Props Tool, we have the Aho shots prop as our highest-rated bet.
At 2.5, I’d bet it to +110. I wouldn’t bet it if it moves to 2.0.