The Minnesota Wild (34-14-10) and Colorado Avalanche (38-9-9) meet in the NHL tonight. Puck drop is set for 9:00 p.m. EST at Ball Arena in Denver, Colo. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN+.
The Avalanche are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 6.5 (-105o / -115u). The Avalanche are a -150 favorite to win outright, while the Wild are +125 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Wild vs. Avalanche predictions and NHL picks.
Wild vs. Avalanche Odds, Pick
| Wild Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 6.5 -105o / -115u | +125 |
| Avalanche Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +160 | 6.5 -105o / -115u | -150 |
- Wild vs. Avalanche Spread: Wild +1,5 (-190), Avalanche -1,5 (+160)
- Wild vs. Avalanche Over/Under: 6.5 (-105o / -115u)
- Wild vs. Avalanche Moneyline: Wild +125, Avalanche -150
Wild vs. Avalanche Kalshi Odds
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Wild vs. Avalanche Preview
Minnesota Wild
Winners of five straight, the Wild are a team to watch coming out of the break.
They’ve gone 8-1-1 over their last 10 games and sit seven points behind Colorado for the top spot in the Western Conference, while battling with Dallas, which is just one point ahead of Minnesota. Colorado does have two games in hand, so this shapes up to be a pivotal game in the standings right out of the gate.
Up the middle remains their biggest concern. Danila Yurov has shown he’s capable of becoming a difference-maker, but outside of Joel Eriksson Ek, they’ve struggled to find a consistently reliable two-way center. The faceoff circle has been especially problematic, ranking 31st at 46.36%.
Still, there’s reason for optimism. GM Bill Guerin has proven he knows how to build a roster. He stood firm with the U.S. Olympic roster, and it paid off. He pulled off the massive Quinn Hughes trade earlier this season and has made it clear the team is not done making moves.
With the right piece or two at the deadline, they have as good a chance as anyone to make a run. At just under 20-1 to win the Cup, the price is intriguing given their upside.
Tonight, it’s all systems go. All eight Olympic participants are expected to be available. Most notably, Matt Boldy, Brock Faber, and Quinn Hughes, who are good to go for both legs of the back-to-back, including Friday in Utah, after returning from making their rounds as gold medalists.
Kirill Kaprizov entered the break on a tear with seven goals and 18 points over his last 10 games. With Russia not participating in the Olympics, he should be well rested.
Goaltending, however, is a developing question mark. What was once an elite tandem between Filip Gustavsson and Jesper Wallstedt has cooled off.
Gustavsson was supplanted by Jacob Markstrom for Sweden at the Olympics, though that stage is admittedly different. Still, he entered the break with a -5.7 GSAx and .891 SV% over his last 10 games. Wallstedt posted nearly identical numbers in that span, with a -5.8 GSAx and .884 SV%.
Gustavsson will get the start tonight. If the Wild are going to make a legitimate run, it begins here in a massive matchup, and they’ll need to rediscover the form in net that carried them through the first couple of months of the season.
Colorado Avalanche
The Avalanche returned last night with a 4-2 win against Utah, the first of five games in seven days. It’s an unforgiving schedule coming out of the break, with two games against the Wild and one against the Stars before next Sunday.
Nathan MacKinnon, their only Olympic participant who sat out last night, will return to the lineup tonight, which is a welcome addition as it heads into a crucial stretch and tries to regain some separation in the division.
It’s easy to forget, but Colorado hit a bit of a wall before the break, going 4-5-1 over their last 10 games before the stop. They seemed to reset with three weeks off and looked sharp against Utah, particularly the makeshift top line of Landeskog–Nelson–Necas.
With MacKinnon returning, it’ll be interesting to see if head coach Jared Bednar goes back to that line at all. Lehkonen–MacKinnon–Necas has been a staple all season and one of the NHL’s best combinations, logging the second-most minutes of any trio and posting an xG/60 of 3.6.
But it’s also worth noting that Landeskog, Nelson, and Necas were effective together on the power play last night. Necas scored a big goal on the man advantage, and from there, Colorado was able to coast to a win, giving a glimmer of hope for a unit that's struggled to figure out all season.
On Tuesday, Colorado made a deal with the Penguins for Brett Kulak. While they gave up a key piece in Samuel Girard and a pick, the move makes sense overall. They added a strong third-pairing defenseman and cleared cap space for potential future moves to improve their power play, which is shockingly the league’s worst at just 15.1%.
Scott Wedgewood started in the net last night, so Mackenzie Blackwood will get the start tonight. He’s been solid over his last 10 games, posting a 3.5 GSAx, .910 SV%, and 2.23 GAA.
Wild vs. Avalanche Prediction
This is a potential four-point swing. With a win, the Wild could pull within five points; with a regulation loss, they’d fall nine back.
I’m not a huge fan of the current playoff format. Colorado, Minnesota, and Dallas look like the three best teams in the West, yet two of them are essentially guaranteed to be eliminated before the conference finals.
That makes games like this even more important if the Wild wants to chase down Colorado for the top seed and avoid a back-to-back gauntlet against Dallas and Colorado in the first two rounds.
It’s close to a must-win if they want that path. This is too big a spot for Minnesota to start sluggishly, which is normally a concern after a break. Nathan MacKinnon's return is a major boost, but the Wild were rolling before the Olympics, while the Avalanche stumbled a bit before resetting last night.
I like taking a shot on Minnesota to carry that momentum and come away with a road win.
Pick: Wild Moneyline (+125)
