The Colorado Avalanche and Vegas Golden Knights meet in Game 4 of the NHL Western Conference Finals tonight. Puck drop is set for 9:00 p.m. EDT at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nev. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN.
The Avalanche are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 6.5 (-107o / -112u). The Avalanche are a -115 favorite to win outright, while the Golden Knights are -105 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Avalanche vs. Golden Knights predictions and NHL picks.
Avalanche vs Golden Knights Prediction
- Avalanche vs Golden Knights Pick: Golden Knights ML
My best bet for Avalanche vs. Golden Knights is Golden Knights moneyline. For updated odds, visit our NHL odds page.
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights NHL Odds
| Avalanche Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +210 | 6.5 -107o / -112u | -115 |
| Golden Knights Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -259 | 6.5 -107o / -112u | -105 |
- Avalanche vs. Golden Knights Spread: Avalanche -1.5 (+210), Golden Knights +1.5 (-259)
- Avalanche vs. Golden Knights Over/Under: 6.5 (-107o / -112u)
- Avalanche vs. Golden Knights Moneyline: Avalanche -115, Golden Knights -105
Avalanche vs Golden Knights NHL Kalshi Odds
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Avalanche vs. Golden Knights Preview
Colorado Avalanche Betting Preview
If you're looking for a positive for Colorado at this point, the underlying metrics of this series don't look nearly as bad as the 3-0 hole the Avs find themselves in. At 5-on-5, the Avalanche actually hold the edge in expected goal share at 55.30%, generating 7.04 xGF compared to 5.69 for Vegas.
In all situations, Colorado is also winning the chance battle by a wide margin, with 103 scoring chances to Vegas' 70, including 36 high-danger opportunities against 29 for the Golden Knights.
Some of that can be chalked up to Colorado chasing games, but it does cast at least a dim light on the Avalanche's potential to stretch this series beyond tonight, even if completing a 3-0 series comeback remains next to impossible.
The injury picture, though, is tough. Missing Cale Makar for Games 1 and 2 clearly left a mark on this series, and there are still questions about how healthy he is right now. Then Nathan MacKinnon took a puck to the knee in Game 3, and the best-case scenario heading into tonight seems to be that he plays in a severely limited capacity.
At that point, a lot of those impressive regular-season and playoff numbers become harder to lean on. Colorado is as talented a team as any in recent memory, but there is only so much ground you can cover when your best defenseman and best forward are either out or substantially hampered.
On the goaltending front, nothing has been officially announced, but it would not be a surprise to see the Avalanche turn to Mackenzie Blackwood tonight. Scott Wedgewood has not been terrible in this series, but a .887 SV% and 3.16 GAA have not been good enough to change the outcome, and Colorado is clearly in need of something different. Rolling the dice on Blackwood makes sense given the circumstances.
Blackwood’s stats in these playoffs are a mixed bag and there isn’t a ton to go off of. He appeared three times against Minnesota, posting a -0.3 GSAx and .872 SV% across those outings. He looked sharp in two of them, but his most recent start went sideways early when he allowed three goals on just 13 shots before getting pulled. It is a small sample, but the Avalanche are out of conventional options at this point.
Vegas Golden Knights Betting Preview
Well, I can confidently say not many people predicted the Knights would be up 3-0 in this series. Colorado was my Stanley Cup pick just over a week ago, and a fairly easy one to make after the Avalanche were the best team in the league throughout the regular season and first two rounds of the playoffs.
Despite what some of the metrics mentioned above in the Colorado preview suggest, Vegas has controlled this series convincingly, and it has done it the old-fashioned way. The Knights have been the more physical and determined team at every turn, and whenever they have needed a goal, they have come at Colorado in waves until they found one.
Spotting the Avalanche a three-goal lead in the first period of Game 3 did not rattle them in the slightest, and Colorado essentially folded the moment Vegas applied pressure. That is not a great sign for a team trying to stave off elimination.
Vegas is playing a pretty textbook brand of playoff hockey right now. Blocking shots, winning puck battles, and killing off eight of nine penalties through three games. Simply put, doing all the little things at an extremely high level.
It also helps that while the Avalanche are dealing with a mounting injury list, the Knights got Mark Stone back in Game 3, and he made an immediate impact with a power-play goal.
A sneaky important piece of Vegas' run has been Tomas Hertl, as well. When he is playing at this level, he gives the Knights a different dimension of depth that is hard to account for. He has points in five of the last six games with three goals and four assists in that stretch.
On top of that, Mitch Marner, who is now the betting favorite for the Conn Smythe, leads the playoffs with 21 points, and Jack Eichel sits second with 18.
The player who may matter most, though, is Carter Hart. Vegas finished 28th in team SV% during the regular season, which made goaltending a huge area of concern heading into the postseason.
Hart now carries a 7.2 GSAx, a .921 SV%, and a 2.30 GAA in these playoffs, stopping 98 of the 104 shots he has faced in this series alone. It is also worth noting this is not unfamiliar territory for him. He’s now 20-9-0 with a .923 SV% in his playoff career, a number that traces back to his strong stretch with Philadelphia in the 2019-20 season.
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights Pick
This is one of the more shocking series I can remember. Colorado down 3-0 would have felt almost unimaginable just over a week ago. Vegas being down 3-0 would’ve been surprising as well, given how well they have played this playoffs, but the Avalanche being on the brink of a sweep is something else entirely.
The injuries only make a historic 3-0 comeback feel even more insurmountable. Makar looked fine overall in his return, but he clearly wasn't getting off shots with his usual comfort, which is such a central part of his game. Factor in the MacKinnon situation, Valeri Nichushkin being questionable, and Artturi Lehkonen clearly dealing with something of his own, and the picture gets pretty grim for Colorado.
Given all of that, I feel great about grabbing Vegas as a home underdog. If the Avalanche somehow find a way to win tonight, you tip your cap to a gutsy performance and move on.
It is an absolutely wild turn of events to be picking the Avalanche to get swept, but that’s playoff hockey for you.
Pick: Golden Knights Moneyline (-105, FanDuel)
