Gavin McKenna has built himself a sizable lead in Polymarket's "2026 NHL Draft 1st Overall Pick" market.
Of all the other names on the board, only Swedish winger Ivar Stenberg has crossed the 10% mark. Everyone else seems to be background noise, so why is McKenna the consensus pick?
NHL Draft No. 1 Pick Predictions
Gavin McKenna grew up in Whitehorse, Yukon, a remote city in Canada's far northwest, where outdoor rinks outnumber most other things and the winters feel like a personal challenge. He started skating at age 2. His idol was Patrick Kane. He was never going to be ordinary.
With the Medicine Hat Tigers in the WHL, McKenna set a franchise record with 97 points as a 16-year-old, then followed it up with 173 points in 76 games across his next campaign.
Rather than staying in junior hockey where the environment was comfortable, and the praise was constant, McKenna chose Penn State. It was considered one of the most significant commitments in college hockey.
He wanted the hardest possible path before the NHL. "Playing against 24-year-olds, there's no time and space," he said. "I thought it would make that jump to the next level a little bit easier."
It worked. He finished the regular season second in the NCAA in points per game (1.46), set nine program records, and became the first Penn State freshman to reach 50 points in a season.
When scouts early in the year questioned his defensive commitment, he spent the second half of the season proving them wrong, ending the year leading his team in created turnovers. His best attribute, according to those who've watched him closest, isn't his shot or his skating. It's his vision. He sees plays that haven't happened yet.
The Dark Horse
Ivar Stenberg is a Swedish winger who plays professionally in the SHL for Frölunda. He posted 33 points in 43 games this season, led all draft-eligible players in the league in assists, and helped Sweden win its first World Junior gold since 2012.
Draft analysts praise his complete, two-way game. Some have even placed him above McKenna in their personal rankings.
The debate is real.
Stenberg may be the safer, more polished pick right now. McKenna may have the higher ceiling. Teams choosing between them are deciding what kind of superstar they want.
There's even a wild card: Insider Cam Robinson recently reported that at least one NHL team has Caleb Malhotra, son of NHL veteran Manny Malhotra, ranked first on their board. A dark horse. A reminder that nothing in sports is ever truly settled.
