The Montreal Canadiens and Buffalo Sabres meet in Game 5 of the NHL Playoffs tonight. Puck drop is set for 7:00 p.m. EDT at KeyBank Center in Buffalo, N.Y. The game will be broadcast live on TNT.
The Sabres are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 5.5 (-134o / +110u). The Sabres are a -120 favorite to win outright, while the Canadiens are +100 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Canadiens vs. Sabres predictions and NHL picks.
Canadiens vs. Sabres Odds, Pick
| Canadiens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -250 | 5.5 -134o / 110u | +100 |
| Sabres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +198 | 5.5 -134o / 110u | -120 |
- Canadiens vs. Sabres Spread: Sabres -1.5 (+198), Canadiens +1.5 (-250)
- Canadiens vs. Sabres Over/Under: 5.5 (-134o / +110u)
- Canadiens vs. Sabres Moneyline: Canadiens +100, Sabres -120
Canadiens vs Sabres Kalshi Odds
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Canadiens vs. Sabres Preview
Montreal Canadiens
I actually thought the Canadiens weathered the storm fairly well in Game 4.
Buffalo was in a clear desperation spot, and Montreal was still able to grab a 2-1 first-period lead despite an early goal from Buffalo and play dominated by the Sabres in the first 10 minutes.
On top of that, Montreal controlled the third period while trying to tie things up, posting a 67.95% expected goal share and generating six high-danger chances.
This series has had a little bit of everything, and the Canadiens have looked like the slightly stronger side, with a pair of impressive wins in Games 2 and 3 where they outscored Buffalo 11-3.
With that said, there are a couple of things that need to click for the Canadiens, and most of it starts with the first line. Having a Selke finalist in Nick Suzuki certainly helps this time of year, but they need him to give that unit a lift on both ends.
There is obviously a ton of offensive potential between his linemates Cole Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky, so Suzuki contributing on both ends is a big piece in getting that line going after it has struggled some this postseason.
In just under 100 minutes together, the trio has produced just 1.68 xGF/60, but Suzuki's defensive stability should free up Caufield and Slafkovsky offensively, and it feels like only a matter of time before things click.
Buffalo has multiple lines that can beat you, and Suzuki has held up well defensively this series, posting a 2.28 xGA/60 and a 68.15% expected goal share while on the ice.
In net, Jakub Dobes is having a decent series with a .895 SV%, but has fared very well this postseason as a whole, posting a 7.6 GSAx and a .914 SV%. With some rotating going on for Buffalo in net, the Habs seem to have the advantage there.
Buffalo Sabres
There is not a lot of playoff experience on this Buffalo roster, but you would not have known it watching Game 4.
Sure, Tage Thompson scored one of the luckier goals you will see to tie the game at 2-2, and that certainly helped matters, but after dropping two straight games where Montreal dominated the play, the Sabres responded with a gritty 3-2 win to even the series.
It looked like they were on the ropes more than once, but a massive four-minute penalty kill against one of the more dangerous power-play units in the league eventually swung the momentum, and led to Zach Benson cashing in the game-winner in the third.
For a team without much playoff experience, it was an impressive grind from start to finish.
With that said, Buffalo put Montreal on the power play seven times and mostly got away with it, surrendering just one goal. That number needs to come down significantly if the Sabres want to win two more games in this series.
Overall, Natural Stat Trick had Buffalo in control for much of Game 4, posting a 59.36% expected goal share and 2.56 xGF compared to Montreal's 1.76. A big reason why was on the defensive end.
Zooming out to the series as a whole, even with two ugly losses, Buffalo has done a solid job containing one of the best lines in hockey, which showed up again on Tuesday.
The Slafkovsky-Suzuki-Caufield trio has been held to a 45.10% expected goal share and zero goals this series, while the Sabres have scored twice with that group on the ice.
Tampa Bay had similar success against that line in the previous round, holding them to a 38.86% expected goal share, zero goals, and scoring four the other way. Buffalo may have taken some notes watching that tape, and it has certainly shown.
Another notable development is the return of Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen in net after Montreal put up 11 goals over the previous two games, nine of which were credited against Alex Lyon.
Luukkonen did not get off to a great start against Boston, allowing seven goals on 40 shots before Lyon took over for the next seven games, but he looked sharp in his first start back.
His overall playoff numbers are not eye-catching, sitting at a -1.2 GSAx and .871 SV%, but he has been confirmed as tonight's starter. The Sabres are clearly going with whatever goalie has the momentum these playoffs and that appears to be Luukkonen right now.
Canadiens vs. Sabres Prediction
Yes, Buffalo was impressive in Game 4, but it's hard not to wonder how that game looks if they don't get a lucky bounce on Tage Thompson's goal.
On top of that, Buffalo has already allowed 20 power play opportunities this series and 18 over the last three games alone. In tight playoff games, that is not a recipe for success, and it feels like something that is going to eventually bite them.
I try not to overreact to single games and instead look at the series as a whole, and Montreal has looked like the slightly better team in totality. It also helps that they are not shuffling through goalies right now.
The Canadiens are priced at even money on the road, the shortest price of any underdog in this series so far, which feels telling. I am riding with Montreal to head back to the Bell Centre with a chance to close it out.
Pick: Canadiens Moneyline (+100, FanDuel)
