The Colorado Avalanche (2-1) and Minnesota Wild (1-2) will face off in Game 4 of the Western Conference semi-final on Monday evening. Puck drop is set for 8:00 p.m. ET at Grand Casino Arena in St. Paul, Minn. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN.
The Avalanche are priced at +164 to cover the puck line, with the over/under set at 6.5 (-104o/-118u). The Avalanche are a -140 favorite to win outright, while the Wild are +116 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Avalanche vs. Wild predictions and NHL picks.
Avalanche vs. Wild Odds, Pick
| Avalanche Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +164 | 6.5 -104o / -118u | -140 |
| Wild Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -205 | 6.5 -104o / -118u | +116 |
- Avalanche vs. Wild Spread: Avalanche -1.5 (+164), Wild +1.5 (-205)
- Avalanche vs. Wild Over/Under: 6.5 (-104o / -1118u)
- Avalanche vs. Wild Moneyline: Avalanche -140, Wild +116
Avalanche vs Wild Polymarket Odds
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Avalanche vs. Wild Preview
Colorado Avalanche
After two fairly convincing wins in Colorado to start the series, the Avalanche seemingly had a hard time answering the Wild's level of desperation in what was essentially a do-or-die Game 3. The Wild were the sharper team overall and got strong contributions from up and down the lineup, while perhaps, most notably, Wild superstars Kirill Kaprizov and Quinn Hughes were fantastic and led the way.
As head coach Jared Bednar noted, the Wild looked like the more determined side, but it doesn't feel like the type of performance that will send legitimate panic throughout the Avs' locker room; more like a simple sense of the need to match Minnesota's level of urgency in Game 4.
Colorado entered Game 3 with a flawless 6-0 record this postseason, having outscored opponents 27 to 15. It has generally looked to be a worthy Stanley Cup favorite and Presidents' Trophy winner, and even a team of that ilk was never going to go all the way without a few speed bumps.
While both teams generated a ton of chances on the power play in Game 3, there were only 11 high-danger scoring chances in even-strength play and just two goals scored at five-on-five. The Wild did a much better job of limiting odd-man rushes and true defensive breakdowns, which kept the NHL's best even-strength offense in check, with Colorado's only goal coming on the power play in the second period.
Scott Wedgewood was pulled midway through the second period after Ryan Hartman gave Minnesota a three-goal lead. Bednar's decision to pull Wedgewood was likely in part an effort to wake his team up and rest his number-one guy while giving a high-quality backup in MacKenzie Blackwood an opportunity to see some game time.
Wedgewood holds a .911 save percentage and +1.5 GSAx this postseason, and it still feels more logical for the Avs' to go back to their top guy in this spot.
Minnesota Wild
The Wild's defensive details were clearly much better in Game 3, after making life a little too easy for the high-powered Avalanche in Games 1 and 2 on the road. Minnesota played with a ton of energy all night, got some strong physical play from depth performers, and did a much better job of keeping its shape defensively and limiting Colorado's time and space.
Jesper Wallstedt bounced back with a strong performance after serving as the backup in Game 2, stopping 35 of 36 shots on goal. Wallstedt's ugly stat line in Game 1 seemed to have much more to do with the type of breakdowns and shot quality that Minnesota allowed, as opposed to being a legitimate indicator that his play would be a concern moving forward.
In the second half of the regular season, Minnesota ranked sixth in xGA/60. Though the Wild have some excellent offensive pieces in their own right, the first two games of this series felt like they had a style more conducive to success for the Avalanche.
It seems more realistic for the Wild to find success in this series if they can force the games to be more structured, tight-checking affairs, and at even strength, that was the case in Game 3.
Joel Eriksson Ek and Jonas Brodin are reportedly drawing closer to their respective returns but will remain sidelined in this matchup. Both are highly meaningful pieces for the team, as Ek is arguably their best center, while Brodin is their top shutdown defender.
Avalanche vs. Wild Prediction
We were somewhat fortunate to see the under get home in Game 3 based on the overall output of scoring chances, but at even strength, the overall gameplay was much more structured than the previous two games were.
It seems likely that this series will continue to trend in that direction and that Minnesota understands more physical, detailed defensive play is its most likely avenue to upsetting Colorado in the series.
Totals will likely start to trend down as we get into the later stages of this series, and I do believe there is value in going back to the well with the under while the total is still set at 6.5.
Pick: Under 6.5 Goals (-118, FanDuel | Play to -125)
