The Vegas Golden Knights and Anaheim Ducks meet in Game 4 of the NHL Playoffs tonight. Puck drop is set for 9:30 p.m. EDT at Honda Center in Anaheim, Calif. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN.
The Golden Knights are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 6.5 (-105o / -115u). The Golden Knights are a -110 favorite to win outright, while the Ducks are -110 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Golden Knights vs. Ducks predictions and NHL picks.
Golden Knights vs. Ducks Odds, Pick
| Golden Knights Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +220 | 6.5 -105o / -115u | -110 |
| Ducks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -259 | 6.5 -105o / -115u | -110 |
- Golden Knights vs. Ducks Spread: Golden Knights -1.5 (+220), Ducks +1.5 (-259)
- Golden Knights vs. Ducks Over/Under: 6.5 (-105o / -115u)
- Golden Knights vs. Ducks Moneyline: Golden Knights -110, Ducks -110
Golden Knights vs. Ducks Preview
Vegas Golden Knights
Following Games 1 and 2 on home ice, the Golden Knights' roster and coaching staff were seemingly well aware of the fact that they were not overly deserving of a split based on the way the games had been contested. Game 3 was a completely different story, as the Knights generated 18 high-danger scoring chances and managed a six-goal outburst.
While the way that Vegas played in Games 1 and 2 is not a sustainable way to win, Carter Hart was excellent in both matchups and followed it up with a solid showing in Game 3. He now holds a .947 save percentage in the series and a +1.7 GSAx rating this postseason after looking to be a huge concern early on versus the Utah Mammoth.
While the young Ducks have generally looked to be the faster side and done a good job of creating offensive zone time in this series, the Golden Knights have proven to hold superior defensive structure, and they managed the puck much more effectively than the Ducks in Game 3.
Mitch Marner has broken out with 13 points this postseason, which is likely in part due to elevated play relative to previous playoffs and in part due to the fact that he has faced drastically worse defensive teams than in years past, playing out of the stacked Atlantic Division bracket.
In 25 games following the Olympic break, the Knights allowed only 2.26 xGA/60 at even strength, which was the second-best mark in the NHL during that span. They have allowed only 2.42 xGA/60 in the postseason at even strength, while in this series, their penalty kill has been flawless versus a Ducks power play that scored on 50% of opportunities in Round 1.
The Knights have a physical and mobile defensive core, while top forwards Jack Eichel, Marner and Ivan Barbashev are quite strong defensively. Vegas' top defensive forward, captain Mark Stone, had left early in Game 3, and is now ruled out for tonight.
Anaheim Ducks
There were some positives in Game 3 for the Ducks, as it still felt as though the energy and urgency were there at times, but they made some key mistakes defensively and did not get the saves they needed. Anaheim has elevated its defensive game quite considerably throughout the postseason, which is not something I personally expected, and in Game 3, more of the weaknesses that made them appear to be a fairly easy out came to fruition.
From an underlying perspective, the Ducks' playoff matchups haven't been quite as high-event as the final scorelines suggest. They have generated 2.77 xGF/60 and allowed 2.66 xGA/60. They have received a save percentage of just .871, and finished 11.18% of shots at the other end of the ice.
While public expected goals models do not entirely encapsulate the true danger of some scoring chances, history does suggest that Anaheim's games could start to level off in terms of chances being finished at a lesser rate.
Last season, the Ducks' defensive play under former head coach Greg Cronin was downright awful, and Lukas Dostal probably did not get enough credit for how brilliant his season was. Unfortunately for the Ducks, who have improved drastically across the board this season under Joel Quenneville, Dostal has had a surprisingly poor season and is starting to feel like a legitimate concern.
Dostal has played to a -3.7 GSAx and an .876 save percentage this postseason. While Dostal's upside still feels high because just last season he was excellent, it wouldn't be entirely shocking if the Ducks do pivot to Ville Husso in this matchup. Husso offered comparable results to Dostal in a small sample during the regular season, and it may feel like the right time to give him an opportunity
Golden Knights vs. Ducks Prediction
The Ducks were not overly sharp defensively in Game 3, but they did do an excellent job of limiting the Knights' zone time and overall offensive output in Games 1 and 2. While they are far from a defensive powerhouse, they have had a fairly sharp postseason overall, which has been masked by a notably low team save percentage.
The Knights, meanwhile, have been one of the NHL's best defensive sides this season, and Hart has started to elevate his game quite considerably since the early part of Round 1 versus the Mammoth. It seems reasonable that the Knights will look to lean on another strong defensive game on the road in this spot, but Anaheim should be focused on limiting turnovers in key areas of the ice and making life easier for whichever goaltender does ultimately get the start.
It's not much fun to back the under in a Ducks game right now, but we are getting closer to the stage of a series where goals tend to dry up, and due to the high total of 6.5, this seems to be a decent spot to back the under.
Pick: Under 6.5 Goals (FanDuel, Play to -115)
