NHL Betting: Will the Coyotes Get Off the Mark Against the Ducks?
Matt Kartozian, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Oliver Ekman-Larsson
Betting odds: Arizona Coyotes at Anaheim Ducks
- Coyotes moneyline: +144
- Ducks moneyline: -159
- Over/Under: 5.5 (+110/-130)
- Puck drop: Wednesday, 10 p.m. ET
>> All odds as of 10 p.m. ET on Tuesday. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NHL odds and track your bets
The Arizona Coyotes have yet to score this season — albeit in two games — so a matchup with the league’s best goalie isn’t exactly what the doctor ordered.
John Gibson has started the season in spectacular fashion for the undefeated Ducks, posting a .964 5v5 save percentage (SV%) and 4.39 Goals Saved Above Average (GSAA) in three starts.
Gibson is among the league’s best goalies but he’s not going to keep standing on his head. His expected save percentage (xSV%) at 5v5 is .912 and Anaheim is getting shelled every night, so it’s hard to imagine Gibson will keep posting zeros.
Despite their unblemished record, the Ducks have been outplayed at even strength. They have a league-worst 38.35% Corsi rating and their expected goal rates rank near the bottom of the league. In other words, Anaheim is very fortunate to be undefeated.
Part of Anaheim’s under-the-hood problems is that Randy Carlyle’s team is dealing with a litany of injury problems. Top-sixers Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry, Ryan Kesler, Ondrej Kase and Patrick Eaves are all injured and only Getzlaf has a chance to play tonight.
As for the Coyotes they are without a goal on the season but Rick Tocchet’s club deserve better. Arizona lost its opener, 3-0, to Dallas by giving up three goals in 90 seconds and then fell to Gibson and the Ducks, 1-0, on Saturday despite posting a ridiculous +34 Corsi differential in the game.
The Coyotes are also strong in net with goaltender Antti Raanta. The 29-year-old Finn was outdueled by Gibson in the first meeting, but he’s not too far behind the Ducks’ netminder.
On Saturday night, the Ducks closed as -113 favorites at Pinnacle, meaning their implied probability was 53.1%. The only thing that has really changed between that game and Wednesday night’s contest is that the Ducks played Detroit on Monday night and the venue has shifted from Arizona to Anaheim.
Home-ice advantage for the NHL increases a team’s win percentage by ~ 3%, meaning the Ducks should be -145 (59.1%) favorites in this one if Wednesday’s closing line was accurate.
Just by going off that you can see there’s some value on Arizona in this one and I’d go even further by saying that, with the injury issues plaguing the Ducks, the Coyotes are the better team and I’d play them all the way down to +120.
Bet: Arizona Coyotes +144