Following the successful debut of my NFL 1st Touchdown Model, I'm excited to launch the NHL first goal model, which I'll try to have as frequently as possible. With my NFL, NASCAR, college basketball, as well as election coverage responsibilities, some days may have to be skipped here and there.
Each day I run the model, I'll have an initial update with projected lines, then try to update after final lines are set after warmups (about 30 min before puck drop), as well as updated first goal odds.
Here are some features that you can use with it:
- Quickslip Links: Under the "Bet Now!" column, click the logo of the sportsbook and it will take you directly to the book with the bet slip of the bet of your choice open for you to quickly place the bet.
- EV: The EV column is the expected ROI of the bet based on the model.
- So, a bet on a +1900 goalscorer (5% implied odds) that the model makes 5.5% likely to happen would return the following expected value: (0.055 / 0.05) – 1 = 0.1 or +10%.
- Confidence Intervals: We know this is just a model, and with it comes uncertainty.
- Click the Low toggle and pick a Confidence Level to see each player’s lowest projected first-goal chance at that level.
- A bet that stays +EV with the toggle on is a nice cushion in case the model is too high on a player.
- Drilldowns: Click on a player's line in the table to open up the drilldown menu which will explain how the model gets to his chances.
- Also, it has a box where you can enter the odds of the player scoring his team's first goal instead of the game's overall first goal as sometimes first team goal will have a higher EV.
- Kelly Staking: This area uses the Kelly Criterion to optimize your bet sizing for bankroll growth. To minimize volatility, bettors often use fractional Kelly, with the first goal model defaulting to quarter-Kelly staking. This sacrifices a small bit of bankroll growth rate, but with the safeguard of being less volatile. With the Low CI toggle on, Kelly only sizes the bets that stay +EV.
- Expected Stats: Betting first goals is not for the faint of heart. Most days are going to end in a loss. But when the wins happen they should, in theory, be big enough to more than cover the losses.
- The line next to the Low toggle shows that day’s expected stats if you bet every +EV play at the selected Kelly staking, using the books or prediction markets you choose in the table header or for individual players. It updates with the game, team and position filters.
So without further ado, here's the debut
