Rangers vs. Penguins Odds, Pick, Prediction: Goaltenders Give Game 4 Matchup Value (May 9)

Rangers vs. Penguins Odds, Pick, Prediction: Goaltenders Give Game 4 Matchup Value (May 9) article feature image

Darcy Finley/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Igor Shesterkin.

  • Will we see another high-scoring affair between the New York Rangers and Pittsburgh Penguins?
  • After a plethora of goals in Games 1-3, the under may be the play in Game 4.
  • Tony Sartori shares his best bet below.

Rangers vs. Penguins Odds

Rangers Odds-105
Penguins Odds-115
Over/Under6 (-115/-105)
Time7 p.m. ET
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

Game 4 of the first-round series between the New York Rangers and the Pittsburgh Penguins is set to get underway on Monday night following Pittsburgh's 7-4 win over the Rangers in Game 3. Each of the first three games in this series has seen seven or more total goals scored.

Will we see another high-scoring affair between these two teams, or will the goaltending finally step up in Game 4?

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New York Rangers

The New York Rangers made a valiant comeback effort in Game 3 as they erased a 4-1 deficit and had the game tied with under 10 minutes to go in the third period on Saturday. Before the comeback, starting goaltender Igor Shesterkin was pulled after allowing four goals on 15 shots for a 0.733 save percentage.

Game 3 was a massive outlier for Shesterkin as he has proven to be one of, if not, the best goaltender in the world with his Vezina-worthy play this season. I expect to see some positive regression in this matchup from Shesterkin, who has done well following a rare poor performance between the pipes this season.

Following games where he allowed four or more goals in the regular season, Shesterkin boasts a 0.930 save percentage. In Game 3, Shesterkin got pulled with -2.73 goals saved above expected (GSAx).

This number is a massive outlier for Shesterkin as he generated an average of +2.96 GSAx through the first two games of this series. Shesterkin's average from the first two games is closer to his season average than his Game 3 performance as he boasts a five-on-five GSAx per 60 minutes of +0.6 this season, which ranks first in the league amongst starting goaltenders.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Across the ice, we can expect to see Louis Domingue between the pipes for the Penguins. Domingue has done a great job filling in after injuries to starting goaltender Tristan Jarry and backup Casey DeSmith.

Through the first three games, Domingue produced a 0.903 save percentage. Despite his surface level numbers being very average, his underlying metrics suggest he has done very well given the high-danger chances produced in front of him.

Outside of his poor performance in Game 2, Domingue generated a positive GSAx figure in both Games 1 and 3. I am also expecting Pittsburgh's defense to step it up as they have had one of the best blue lines all season despite a poor performances in the series thus far.

The Penguins rank sixth in the league in five-on-five expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA). Through the first three games, the Penguins have given up an average of four goals scored, despite allowing an average of just 2.71 during the regular season.

Rangers vs. Penguins Pick

I think we get a regression game from both teams in this matchup. Shesterkin should be able to bounce back and the Penguins' defense has not lived up to its season-long dominance thus far.

With the total being set at six in a series where each game has seen at least seven total goals scored, the public will be on the over which makes me like the under even more. I highly doubt this total will drop to 5.5 before puck drop, however, if it does I would not play the under at that number.

Pick: Rangers/Penguins u6 (-105) | Play up to (-120)

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