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Friday NHL Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Panthers vs. Islanders Game 4 Preview (August 7)

Friday NHL Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Panthers vs. Islanders Game 4 Preview (August 7) article feature image

Chase Agnello-Dean/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Noel Acciari

  • The Islanders are favored over the Panthers in Game 4 qualifying round action, moreso than they were in the first three games.
  • Michael Leboff believes the value has been sucked out of New York after a 15 to 20 cent line move from earlier games, and would instead play Florida at +115 or better on Friday.
  • Get his full breakdown below.

Islanders vs. Panthers Odds

Islanders Odds -127 [BET NOW]
Panthers Odds +110 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 5.5 [BET NOW]
Time Friday, 12 p.m. ET

Odds as of Thursday via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

The New York Islanders have largely controlled the run of play in their best-of-5 series with the Florida Panthers, but weren’t able to finish off the sweep in Game 3 thanks to a few mental mistakes that ended up in the back of their net.

At 5-on-5 the Isles have looked like the best versions of themselves. They are keeping Florida out of the danger areas, blocking shots and winning the expected goals battle.

Where the Panthers have been able to make hay is on the man advantage. Florida is 3-for-9 on the power play through the first three games and will need to continue producing on the PP since it is not finding much luck breaking through the Isles’ defensive structure at 5-on-5.

Florida Panthers New York Islanders
5-on-5 Goals For 3 4
5-on-5 Expected Goals For 4.15 4.91
5-on-5 Shot Attempts 116 128
5-on-5 High-Danger Scoring Chances 19 25

Expected goals (also known as xG) is a predictive statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as shooting luck or outstanding goaltending.

Simply put, an expected goals rate (xGF%) above 50% is considered good because it means a team is creating the majority of the scoring chances. Anything below 50% is usually a sign that a team is struggling to control play.

Stats cited from Natural Stat Trick.

If these games continue to be low-event grind-fests, the Islanders are likely to get the job done. Florida’s strength is its talented offense and, during the regular season, the Cats didn’t have a dependable Plan B to fall back on since goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky struggled.

Bobrovsky has been strong so far in this series and if he stays on song the Panthers have a chance no matter how well the Islanders play. New York is an offensively challenged team and a hot Bobrovsky is more than capable of stealing a couple of games and sending the Isles packing.

Florida Panthers New York Islanders
Game 1 +108 -127
Game 2 +106 -124
Game 3 +106 -122
Game 4 +110 -127

Odds via DraftKings

After opening this game as a virtual pick ’em, DraftKings has taken some money on the Islanders and that action has moved the price on the Isles up to -127, which is where they closed before Game 1.

I don’t disagree that the Islanders were good value in the -110/-115 range, but the line has moved too much for me to get involved with New York in this game. At this point I’m closer to a play on Florida and would act on anything at +115 or better.

[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]

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