NHL Odds, Preview, Expert Prediction: Coyotes vs. Jets (Jan. 15)

NHL Odds, Preview, Expert Prediction: Coyotes vs. Jets (Jan. 15) article feature image

Darcy Finley/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Goaltender Connor Hellebuyck #37 of the Winnipeg Jets

  • The Jets are heavy favorites on Sunday night against the Coyotes.
  • The Coyotes are playing the second leg of a back-to-back and are expected tos tart their backup goaltender, but is there any value left in fading them?
  • Grant White breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.

Coyotes vs. Jets Odds

Coyotes Odds+255
Jets Odds-320
Time7 p.m. ET
TVNHL Network
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

The Arizona Coyotes need every advantage they can get, but unfortunately, they won't have much working in their favor when they take on the Winnipeg Jets on Sunday night.

The Desert Dogs take to the ice against their division foes on the second night of a back-to-back, playing as the visitors in both contests. Conversely, the Jets return home after a successful three-game road trip, winning seven of their past eight games. Predictably, the betting line favors the home side, but based on our analysis, not by nearly enough.

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Can the Coyotes Rally on a Back-to-Back?

Few things are going right for the Coyotes this season, which is illustrated in their recent sample. Arizona has been outplayed in all but one of their last nine games, usually by a substantive margin. However, they'll also have to overcome misplaying their goaltending hand. The Yotes elected to start primary tendy Karel Vejmelka Saturday night against the Minnesota Wild, meaning Connor Ingram and his 88.6% save percentage is the probable starter against the Jets.

Analytically, the Coyotes have been one of the worst in the NHL this year. They rank third-worst in Expected Goals For Percentage but have fallen below their already poor metrics over their last nine games. Across that stretch, the Yotes posted a cumulative 41.3% rating, falling into the 30.0% range in four contests. That ineffective play will be compounded by playing on consecutive nights against two of the best teams in the division.

Of course, we can't look past the Coyotes' goaltending management issues. Ingram has struggled as a backup this season, posting a substandard save percentage, with a 3.92 goals against average and -6.8 Goals Saved Above Average. As expected, his splits are worse on the road, with Ingram losing six of his seven starts.

Jets Should Control Play

A coaching change was the tune-up the Jets needed, and they continue to thrive under Rick Bowness. Winnipeg sits atop the Central Division standings and could start to pull away from the other contenders in the second half of the season. We've seen the best the Jets have to offer over their past few games, and it could be a sign of what's to come as they set their sights on a playoff berth.

The Jets are fresh off a dominant performance against the Pittsburgh Penguins. They thoroughly outplayed the Pens on Friday night, posting a 60.5% Expected Goals For percentage. Still, that was the second time over their previous three games in which they've surpassed the 60.0% threshold. Offense has been the foundation of their success recently, and we're anticipating another above-average effort against a tired Coyotes team.

Over the last week, the Jets have been controlling the play in the attacking zone. Winnipeg is averaging 11.5 High-Danger and 25.3 Scoring Opportunities over their previous four matchups. More importantly, they've out-chanced their opponents in quality opportunities in all four and had more scoring chances in three of four. That's a major factor contributing to their analytics success and a level of play the Coyotes can't match.

Coyotes vs. Jets Pick

The Jets are full throttle right now, while the Coyotes are barely limping along. The price is already inflated on the home side, but it should continue to climb ahead of puck drop. As such, we're anticipating closing line value to favor Winnipeg and backing the division leaders on Sunday night. This line is good up to -350.

Pick: Jets -320

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