NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Avalanche vs Stars (Thursday, January 4)
(Photo by Michael Martin/NHLI via Getty Images) Pictured: Nathan MacKinnon
Avalanche vs. Stars Odds
| Avalanche Odds | +106 |
| Stars Odds | -128 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -102 / -120 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Colorado Avalanche vs. Dallas Stars on Thursday, Jan. 4 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
Colorado is coming off a nice overtime win against the Islanders at home. The Central Division-leading Avalanche have been on a hot streak, winning three in a row and going 7-2-1 in their past 10 games.
Dallas is on a similar hot streak, despite losing against Montreal on Tuesday. The Stars have also gone 7-2-1 in their past 10 games and have won five of their past seven.
The superstars in Denver always know when to shine. Nathan MacKinnon is well on his way to another 100-point season, while Mikko Rantanen and Cale Makar are also averaging over a point per game. Valeri Nichushkin, a huge power play specialist, has also been a standout. He has 19 goals this season, and 10 of them are on the man advantage.
The Avalanche are pretty good 5-on-5, ranking 10th in expected goals with a 52.5 xGF%. Defensively, they’re just as good and rank seventh in expected goals against per 60 minutes with a 2.43 xGA/60.
Colorado's strength on the power play shouldn't be a surprise. The Avalanche score at a devastating 24% pace and succeed 83% of the time with their penalty kill.
Alexandar Georgiev has received the majority of the starts, but you may be surprised to learn that he’s not a very efficient netminder. Despite having an elite season last year, he’s playing to an .898 SV% and has 2.6 goals saved above expected (GSAx).
Don’t look now, but Jason Robertson is on an absolute tear. After a mildly slow start to the season, the sniper is averaging over a point per game, including points in seven consecutive games. The same can be said for Roope Hintz — who’s six-game point streak was snapped Tuesday. Beyond its two budding stars, Dallas has exemplary weapons at its disposal, whether it be Joe Pavelski, Mason Marchment or Matt Duchene.
Dallas has a highly efficient 5-on-5 attack. It ranks in the top five on both sides of the puck, playing to a 54.21 xGF% and a 2.31 xGA/60.
On top of their exceptional even strength play, the Stars are just as good on special teams. They score on the power play at a 22% clip and succeed on the penalty kill 85% of the time, third best in the league.
Jake Oettinger has been dealing with an injury for the past few weeks, and it’s undetermined if he will suit up tonight. Oettinger was not playing well leading up to his injury as he had a sub-.850 SV%. If he doesn’t play, Scott Wedgewood will get the start. He's done fine in relief with an .890 SV% in nine appearances.
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Avalanche vs. Stars
Betting Pick & Prediction
Two division rivals battling it out for Central Division supremacy — what could be better?
Both of these teams are fairly even. I’d say Dallas has the upper hand in even strength play, while Colorado has the power play advantage. I’d also consider goaltending an even split.
I think we have a chance to see a high-scoring bout. The Avalanche average the seventh-most penalty minutes per game, which can give the Stars ample opportunities to jack up the score. I think Colorado’s power will be too much for Wedgewood and MacKinnon is playing the best hockey of his life. Also, the Avalanche play at an extraordinary pace.
Pick: Over 6.5 (-102)
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