NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Bruins vs Capitals (Monday, April 15)
Bruins vs. Capitals Odds
| Bruins Odds | -160 |
| Capitals Odds | +135 |
| Over / Under | 5.5 -110o / -110u |
Here's everything you need to know about the Boston Bruins vs. Washington Capitals on Monday, April 15 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
There are only two games left in the regular season for both the Boston Bruins and Washington Capitals, and the stakes couldn't be higher.
After finishing a distant sixth in the Metropolitan Division standings last year, Washington is on the verge of returning to the postseason. Heading into Monday's action, the Caps occupy the final wild-card spot. But with four teams within four points of them, the Capitals can't afford any slip-ups over the final two games of the season.
The tone in the Bruins camp is less desperate, albeit with a similar emphasis on leaving with two points. The B's are still in contention for the President's Trophy, needing to sweep their last two games of the season and get some help from opponents to claim the distinction.
As a result, we are expecting a wildly entertaining showdown between these clubs on Monday night, with both teams bringing playoff intensity to Capital One Arena as we preview our Bruins vs. Capitals prediction for Monday.
The Bruins enter tonight's intra-conference affair with wins in five of their past six. Included in that sample, is a convincing 6-4 win over the Pittsburgh Penguins last time out. However, they have overcome some pretty disappointing metrics to get to that level. We're expecting regression to impact the B's competitiveness over their immediate schedule.
Boston has been outplayed in four of its past six, yielding an unimpressive 48.3% expected goals-for rating. Nothing appears to be going right for the Bruins at the moment, with deteriorating offensive and defensive metrics.
In the attacking zone, the B's have witnessed a decline in their production metrics. Brad Marchand and company are down to 9.2 high-danger and 19.2 scoring chances over their last six while getting out-chanced in both categories. Further, they have some of the worst possession metrics in the game, posting an awful 43.8% Corsi rating over the same stretch.
The Bruins' actual goals-for rating of 63.2% is a substantial deviation away from expected. More tough losses with likely follow for the Bruins as they attempt to get their metrics in order before the playoffs.
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Like their opponents on Monday night, the Capitals have used a recent hot streak to solidify their position in the playoff race. However, unlike its hosts, Washington has backed up those wins with decent underlying metrics.
The betting market may be unwilling to acknowledge that, but that only strengthens the position for bettors willing to take a shot with the underdog home side.
The Caps have seen a slight rise in their metrics more recently. Washington's expected goals-for rating is up to 51.9% across its last six games, putting them ahead of their regular season standing of 47.2%.
Improved play in both ends of the ice is contributing to the statistical bump, with the Capitals also posting a more robust 54.3% high-danger chances rating over their last six.
Those advantages are even more pronounced when factoring in scheduling. The Bruins come into Monday's clash playing their eighth road game over their last ten outings. That beleaguered side will have a hard time keeping pace with a Caps squad that will deploy their top scorers under the most ideal circumstances.
Washington is on an upward swing at the right time of year. The Caps can wield their home-ice and analytics advantages against the Bruins on Monday.
Bruins vs. Capitals
Betting Pick & Prediction
Boston isn't as good as the betting market may have you believe. The Bruins consistently rank among the top bet teams in the Stanley Cup futures market, and enter tonight's affair as -160 chalk.
Unlike its opponents, Washington's recent success is steeped in solid analytics, supporting the sustainable nature of their current form.
Consequently, we are taking a firm stance in backing the Caps as +135 home underdogs, and I would back them up to +120.
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