NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Bruins vs Flames (Thursday, February 22)
NEW YORK, NEW YORK – FEBRUARY 12: Martin Pospisil #76 of the Calgary Flames skates against the New York Rangers at Madison Square Garden on February 12, 2024 in New York City. (Photo by Jared Silber/NHLI via Getty Images)
Bruins vs. Flames Odds
| Bruins Odds | -120 |
| Flames Odds | +100 |
| Over / Under | 5.5 -130 / +110 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Boston Bruins vs. Calgary Flames on Thursday, February 22 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
The Boston Bruins are attempting to go for their third win in four nights when they take on the Calgary Flames. Boston is coming off a thrilling 6-5 overtime victory over the Edmonton Oilers, traveling south for a date with their intra-provincial rivals on the second night of a back-to-back.
The Flames are well rested, last playing a Monday afternoon matinee against the Winnipeg Jets. That was Calgary's fifth win over its past eight games as the Flames try to climb back into the Western Conference playoff picture.
They can add another two points to their win total against a road-weary Bruins squad on Thursday night.
The Bruins enter Thursday's inter-conference battle on a modest two-game winning streak, which is a welcome relief from the four-game slide they were previously on. However, their success is contradicted by their underlying metrics, as Boston was substantially outplayed in both of those contests. Those issues will be compounded by playing on a condensed schedule with travel.
Boston was humbled at home on Monday afternoon against the Dallas Stars. In that contest, the Bruins gave up an astounding 37 scoring chances and 18 high-danger chances at 5-on-5, getting out-chanced in both categories. Predictably, that tilted the expected goals-for rating away from the hosts, with the Bruins putting up a disappointing 41.3% mark.
Likewise, the Bruins were outplayed again on Wednesday night when they visited the Oilers, posting a 44.8% expected goals-for rating. Boston gave up more high-danger chances than they did against the Stars, letting Edmonton attempt 19. But even more concerning, that was the third straight game in which their opponent had exceeded 11.
Those concerns are amplified when we consider Boston's poor track record on the second night of back-to-backs. Under these circumstances, the Bruins have been out-chanced in high-danger chances in four straight outings. Worse, they've been severely outplayed, putting up a 40.2% expected goals-for rating or lower in three of those four contests.
Boston has overachieved relative to its on-ice product, a trend we expect to reverse against the Flames.
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The Flames have a ways to go to assert themselves as playoff contenders, but their path forward is grounded in solid analytics. Calgary has outplayed its opponents in seven of its past 10, making all of their gains sustainable. With days to rest up for tonight's contest, we expect the Flames to be in tip-top shape for Boston.
Calgary has been particularly dominant over its last three games. Over that small sample, the Flames have out-chanced their opponents by a combined 86-51 margin in scoring chances and 34-16 margin in high-danger chances, yielding respective rates of 62.8% and 68.0%. Not surprisingly, this has resulted in an impressive 64.5% expected goals-for rating over that stretch.
What's implicit in those results is a much-improved defensive effort. The Flames have struggled to contain opponents this season, ranking among the 10 worst teams in scoring chances allowed. But their recent efforts reflect a renewed commitment to defending their own end, giving the Flames an added advantage against the Bruins.
Calgary's efforts are starting to result in better outcomes, pointing toward more wins on the horizon.
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Bruins vs. Flames
Betting Pick & Prediction
These teams recent performances are grounded in opposite directions. On one hand, we have a Bruins squad that has won consecutive games, despite getting outplayed in both contests. On the other, the Flames have been a superior analytics squad, which should start to yield more wins.
Those waves collide in what is expected to be a one-sided affair at the Saddledome. Boston is skating on tired legs, whereas the Flames have been resting at home since the start of the week.
Calgary may be installed as underdogs, but they are undeserving of that distinction. We're taking a firm stance on the Flames, backing them up to -110.
Pick: Flames (+105 at ESPN BET)
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