NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Bruins vs Maple Leafs Game 6 (Thursday, May 2)
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Bruins vs. Maple Leafs Odds
| Bruins Odds | -125 |
| Maple Leafs Odds | +105 |
| Over / Under | 5.5 -115o / +100u |
Here's everything you need to know about the Boston Bruins vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Game 6 on Thursday, May 2 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
The air in Toronto will be electric tonight as the Maple Leafs host the Boston Bruins in a crucial Game 6. Trailing the series 3-2, the Leafs are under immense pressure to extend their postseason life against a Bruins side poised to close out the series for the second consecutive game.
So, let's dig into this matchup and make a Bruins vs. Maple Leafs pick.
Offensively, the Bruins have remained the same as they were during the regular season.Their regular season play was marked by poor puck control, indicated by a 24th ranking in Corsi %, and their playoff figures remain bottom of the pack as they have the second-worst mark out of 16 playoff teams.
The most significant improvement for Boston is a remarkable uptick in power play efficiency. The Bruins rank second in the playoffs with six goals on 14 opportunities, a stark contrast to their regular-season performance, where they ranked in the middle of the pack. The Bruins will need more of that efficiency on the man advantage as they will face an uphill battle tonight in enemy territory.
Defensively, Boston has also stayed status quo in the playoffs. During the regular season, the Bruins' metrics were average (18th in Expected Goals Against and 20th in High-Danger chances), and in the playoffs, they remain in the middle of the pack.
As he was during the regular season, goaltender Jeremy Swayman has been the linchpin keeping the Bruins afloat. He showcases top-tier performance with the highest goals saved above expected among playoff goalies, solidifying Boston’s net-minding as a key factor in both its regular season and playoff success.
Toronto's offense has been stifled by Swayman as the Leafs have averaged 1.8 goals per game in this series and have been held to two or fewer goals in four of the five games. Toronto's regular-season play was robust, reflected in their high rankings in Expected Goals For (sixth).
However, the playoffs have brought about a mix of improved puck possession — third in Corsi % during the postseason — but a surprising drop-off in power play success (1-for-17).
On the defensive end, the Maple Leafs have shown similar metrics in the playoffs as they did during the regular season. After a regular season fraught with challenges in high-danger scenarios (30th in High-Danger Chances Against), they still rank in the bottom half of teams in the playoffs.
The biggest difference defensively is goalie Joseph Woll, who was average during the regular season. He has risen to the occasion and ranks first in save percentage above expected and sixth in goals saved above expected among playoff goaltenders. Even so, Toronto has still allowed three goals per game against Boston and has only held the Bruins to less than three goals in two of the five games this series.
Bruins vs. Maple Leafs
Betting Pick & Prediction
Given the stakes of the game and the trends detailed above, the recommended bet is on the Bruins moneyline at -115 odds at FanDuel.
Boston's ability to exploit Toronto’s defensive liabilities and their defensive solidity — particularly Swayman in net — provides the Bruins with the upper hand. Moreover, their ability to exploit Toronto's weak power-play defense could be pivotal, as it has been all series.
Despite the Maple Leafs' home-ice advantage, the Bruins' balanced strengths, coupled with Swayman's exceptional form, positions them favorably to clinch the series.
The Bruins have only lost two or more games in a row seven times this season and are one of the best teams at bouncing back after a loss.
Pick: Bruins Moneyline (-115)
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