NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Bruins vs Predators (Tuesday, April 2)
Ashley Potts/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Nashville’s Filip Forsberg.
Bruins vs Predators Odds
| Bruins Odds | -115 |
| Predators Odds | -105 |
| Over / Under | 5.5 -120 / +100 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Boston Bruins vs. Nashville Predators on Tuesday, April 2 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
We knew it would eventually come to an end, but the Nashville Predators are going to need a hand in snapping out of the ensuing rut.
Fresh off an 18-game point streak, in which they went 16-2, the Preds have lost two straight. Although it may appear insignificant, that leaves the door open just wide enough for the St. Louis Blues or Minnesota Wild to potentially catch Nashville for a wild card spot.
Those concerns will become even more amplified if the Predators can't find a way to defeat the Boston Bruins on Tuesday night.
Boston remains one of the top teams in the NHL, leading the Atlantic Division with 101 points and sitting just three back of the New York Rangers for the President's Trophy.
As good as they've been, the Bruins don't have analytics supporting ongoing success. Somehow, their metrics have plummeted even further lately, leaving the B's undeserving of their betting price as road favorites over the Preds.
Boston may be one of the top-performing teams in the NHL, but it has overcome some suspect metrics to get there.
With a 50.4% expected goals-for rating, the Bruins have fallen to the bottom half of the league. And as disappointing as that benchmark is, they've gotten worse over the past couple of weeks.
The Bruins have been outplayed a lot lately, usually by a staggering margin. Their expected goals-for rating has fallen below 47.3% in four of their past five games, resulting in a cumulative 42.8% mark.
The B's are getting absolutely destroyed on both ends of the ice, getting out-chanced in high-danger chances in all five outings. Worse, they've been held to seven or fewer quality chances in all but one of those outings while giving up 10 or more in three of five. Consequently, Boston's high-danger chance rating has deteriorated to a disastrous 35.6%.
Scheduling concerns also factor into our analysis.
Boston is one the most well-traveled teams of late and finds itself in the midst of a six-game road trip. Tuesday's inter-conference affair is just the fifth game of the trip, meaning the Bruins haven't been home since March 21. Inevitably, that travel will catch up with them as they try to stay fresh without any of their home amenities.
Travel and ineffective analytics are both working against the Bruins, putting them at a disadvantage against the Preds.
Nashville's win streak may have come to an end, but it has continued to deliver hero efforts virtually every time it steps on the ice.
The Preds have outplayed their opponents in nine straight and 13 of their last 15, cementing themselves as a top team at the most crucial time of year. It's no wonder the Preds went on as long of a streak as they did.
Looking at only their more recent sample, Nashville has put forth some assertive efforts. Since March 9, the Preds have a league-best 60.5% expected goals-for rating, outplaying the likes of the Colorado Avalanche, Winnipeg Jets and Vegas Golden Knights.
The most impressive aspect of the Predators' on-ice dominance has been their improved offensive metrics. Over their last nine games, they're averaging 12.9 high-danger chances per game, eclipsing double-digits in six of those outings.
Combined with their typically stout defensive efforts, Nashville has out-chanced its opponents in quality opportunities in nine of its previous 11.
They may have lost consecutive games, but the Predators are perched atop the NHL standings and analytics, positioned as the best team in the league.
Bruins vs Predators
Betting Pick & Prediction
The betting market has taken a curious stance on the Bruins.
Boston opened as plus-money underdogs but was quickly bought up to -120 chalk. Bettors lining up to back the Bruins are overlooking two notable trends. They're stuck on an extended road trip, and they've been mired in an analytics slump.
The Predators are skating in the opposite direction, asserting themselves as one of the best the NHL has to offer. With home-ice advantage also on their side, we expect Nashville to upend their Eastern Conference counterparts at Bridgestone Arena on Tuesday night.
We're taking anything plus-money on the Preds but would back them up to the open, which was -120.
Pick: Predators +102 (Play to -120)
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