Tuesday NHL Odds, Picks, Prediction: Boston Bruins vs. Detroit Red Wings Betting Preview

Tuesday NHL Odds, Picks, Prediction: Boston Bruins vs. Detroit Red Wings Betting Preview article feature image

Steve Babineau/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron

  • The Red Wings are home underdogs against the Bruins on Tuesday night.
  • With the Bruins playing the second leg of a back-to-back, is there value in fading them in this spot?
  • Tony Sartori breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.

Bruins vs. Red Wings Odds

Bruins Odds-195
Red Wings Odds+160
Over/Under6 (-115 / -105)
Time7:30 p.m. ET
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

We have an Atlantic Division tilt set for Tuesday night as the fourth-place Boston Bruins travel to Detroit to take on the fifth-place Red Wings. This is the fourth meeting between these two teams this season as the Bruins have covered the puck line in two of the first three matchups.

Can the Bruins pull off a dominant win once again, or will the Red Wings keep this game close on home ice?

Boston Bruins

The Boston Bruins enter this contest on the second half of a back-to-back after facing the Columbus Blue Jackets on Monday night. Boston enters this contest on a tear as they have won nine of their last 11 games (as of writing before the conclusion of Monday's game).

Seven of those nine wins have been achieved in regulation. Since Boston is on the second half of a back-to-back, and Linus Ullmark got the start on Monday, we can expect Jeremy Swayman to get the start between the pipes against Detroit.

Swayman has been awesome in the crease this season and should continue to find success against a Detroit team that struggles to score. This season, Swayman boasts an impressive 0.920 Save Percentage and ranks 12th among starting goaltenders in five-on-five Goals Saved Above Expected per 60 minutes (GSAx).

His recent form is even more spectacular as Swayman has won 11 of his last 13 starts and has allowed two or fewer goals in nine of those outings. The Bruins also possess a clear analytic advantage over Detroit as they rank higher in both five-on-five Expected Goals For per 60 minutes (xGF) and five-on-five Expected Goals Against per 60 minutes (xGA).

Detroit Red Wings

On the other hand, the Detroit Red Wings enter this contest in horrible form as they have lost six straight and 13 of their last 15 games. Over those 13 losses, 10 have occurred in regulation.

The primary reason for this brutal stretch has been poor defense and goaltending. Alex Nedeljkovic is the projected starting goaltender for Detroit and has really struggled in the crease recently.

Nedeljkovic has allowed four or more goals in three straight starts, posting a dreadful 0.816 Save Percentage over that stretch. This season, Nedeljkovic ranks just 25th among starting goaltenders in five-on-five Goals Saved Above Expected per 60 minutes (GSAx).

Detroit's defense in front of Nedeljkovic has been equally as poor recently as the Red Wings are allowing an average of 5.50 goals scored per game over their last six contests. Their offense has not been much help either as they are averaging just 2.17 goals scored per game over that same stretch.

Bruins vs. Red Wings Pick

As much as I want to fade the Bruins, who are playing their third game in four days, I just do not see how the Red Wings can compete in this matchup with how they have been playing recently. The Bruins have the goaltending advantage, the analytic advantage, and are simply a better team.

Detroit has been bleeding goals to the opposition in the month of March, and Boston's top-six forwards should have a field day.

Pick: Boston 3-Way ML (-130 | Play up to -140)

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