Bruins vs Stars NHL Odds, Picks, Predictions

Bruins vs Stars NHL Odds, Picks, Predictions article feature image

Ethan Miller/Getty Images. Pictured: Joe Pavelski of the Dallas Stars.

  • The Stars are short home underdogs on Tuesday night against the Bruins.
  • Both teams have been on a slide of late, but which side is better positioned to win this matchup?
  • Grant White breaks down the matchup and shares his betting prediction below.

Bruins vs. Stars Odds

Bruins Odds-125
Stars Odds+104
Time8:30 p.m. ET
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

Two of the best the NHL has to offer face off on Tuesday night as the Dallas Stars host the Boston Bruins. Both teams sit atop their respective divisions, but the Stars' grip on first place in the Central Division is more tenuous than the Bruins' grip on the Atlantic Division crown. However, Dallas has more than just a home-ice advantage in this nonconference matchup.

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Bruins on the Struggle Bus

The Bruins have been seemingly unbeatable all season, making their current slide even more uncharacteristic. They have lost four of their past five, and unfortunately, their metrics suggest they will continue to struggle. Those issues are compounded by their scheduling deficiencies, as they are in the midst of playing seven of eight away from their friendly confines.

The B's are struggling on both ends of the ice. The Atlantic Division leaders have allowed at least 11 High-Danger Chances in five straight games, giving up an average of 12.4 per game. They've been inept at creating opportunities, getting out-chanced in all but one of those contests. It's even more concerning that the team has attempted more than nine quality opportunities just once over that stretch.

Predictably, the diminished production has resulted in decreased output. Boston has been held to one goal at five-on-five in three of its past five. Consequently, the Bruins' shooting percentage has plummeted to 7.4% across all strengths over the five-game sample. Still, the Bruins are skating around with the highest PDO, implying further correction could be forthcoming.

Stars Should Benefit from Regression

The Stars have been on a similar slide as the Bruins lately, but Dallas has some solid metrics working in its favor. As such, we're anticipating some puck luck to ensue as the Stars' outcomes start to reflect their on-ice product.

Dallas has just two wins over its previous six contests, despite outplaying five of those six opponents. More impressively, the Stars are dominating on both ends of the ice, out-chancing their opponents in all six outings and posting a cumulative 61.1% High-Danger Chance rating.

But there's a disconnect between the Stars' scoring and production, implying further scoring is on the horizon.

Despite the increased productivity, the Stars' scoring has regressed over their recent schedule. Over the previous six games, Dallas is scoring on just 6.5% of its shots, falling below its season average in four of six. Worse, the Stars have been held to two or fewer goals in all but two of those games. There's a growing disconnect in the Stars' analytics, suggesting they are progression candidates in the coming games.

Bruins vs. Stars Pick

Neither team has had favorable outcomes over their recent schedules, but only the Stars have metrics working in their favor. Dallas has a 55.7% Expected Goals-For rating over its six-game sample, a span in which it has only two wins. Conversely, the Bruins have been much worse, posting a 44.5% mark over their last five.

Boston is well-traveled, whereas the Stars are concluding a seven-game homestand. It's not reflected in the betting odds, but circumstances benefit the home side. It's worth backing Dallas at anything better than a pick'em.

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