Canadiens vs Islanders Odds: NHL Preview, Prediction
(Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images) Pictured: Anders Lee
- NHL betting expert Greg Liodice looks over the Canadiens vs Islanders odds, then makes an NHL prediction.
- Liodice is targeting the total in this game, so continue reading for his over/under pick.
Canadiens vs. Islanders Odds
| Canadiens Odds | +180 |
| Islanders Odds | -220 |
| Over / Under | 5.5 -128 / +104 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Montreal Canadiens vs. New York Islanders on Thursday, April 11 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
Montreal is fresh off a dominating 9-3 win against the Flyers on Tuesday, but it hasn't always been peaches and cream. Prior to the win, it was in the middle of a funk and lost three in a row. Regardless, the Canadiens are preparing for the draft and offseason as they’re eliminated from the playoff hunt.
If there was ever a time to get hot, it’s now. The Islanders have won five in a row, including a 4-2 win against the Rangers. Not only that, but they’re also in the middle of a heated playoff race with four other teams.
What a night Tuesday was for second-year player Juraj Slafkovsky, who netted his first career hat trick. Captain Nick Suzuki has six points in his past five games, and Cole Caufield is on a five-game point streak. Additionally, Michael Matheson has been on a tear with 11 points in his past seven games.
Apart from Tuesday, the Canadiens have been pretty terrible at 5-on-5 play. Since March 25, they’ve ranked 28th in expected goals with a 42.89 xGF%. Defensively, they’re just as bad with a fourth-worst 4.01 xGA/60.
While Montreal’s penalty kill over the past 10 games has been elite at 85%, the power play is a dumpster fire at a 11.5% clip.
Sam Montembeault and Cayden Primeau have shared responsibilities in Montreal’s crease, but I think Montembeault will get the nod. Apart from the disaster he had on Saturday, he’s really been strong as of late. He’s playing to a .904 SV% and a 3.8 goals saved above expected (GSAx).
The Islanders are on a decent run right now, and Mathew Barzal is a big part of it with a five-game point streak. Noah Dobson is also having a career-high season with 70 points, and Bo Horvat has goals in four of his past five games. Speaking of goals, Kyle Palmieri has been a goal scoring wizard in three straight.
Even amidst this five-game streak, this team could still be better 5-on-5. The Islanders are 20th with a 50.22 xGF% and 15th with a 3.17 xGA/60.
New York’s special teams have been a disaster all season, and this 10-game stretch is no exception. It’s scored on the power play 11% of the time, and the penalty kill is at 73.7%.
I genuinely don’t know what happens in net tonight. Ilya Sorokin has had a very down year and Semyon Varlamov has been a catalyst for this run, so perhaps we'll see him. He’s playing to a .936 SV% in his past six starts and has 8.7 GSAx.
Canadiens vs. Islanders
Betting Pick & Prediction
The total for this game is listed at 5.5, and I think this has the potential to go over. With odds at -128, the books also agree. The fact is, Montreal often finds itself in high scoring games.
New York, on the other hand, can be a mixed bag. However, given the weapons on this team, and how well it’s playing as of late, I can see the Islanders lighting up an already struggling Canadiens’ defense.
Pick: Over 5.5 Goals (-128)
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