NHL Odds, Prediction, Preview: Canucks vs Canadiens (Sunday, November 12)
Pictured: Nick Suzuki celebrates after a goal. (Photo by Vitor Munhoz/NHLI via Getty Images)
Canucks vs. Canadiens Odds
| Canucks Odds | -170 |
| Canadiens Odds | +140 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -124 / +102 |
Here's everything you need to know about Canucks vs Canadiens odds on Sunday, Nov. 12 — our expert prediction and best bet for today.
At the start of the season, the Vancouver Canucks were the last Canadian team that was expected to compete for a playoff spot. Yet here we are a month into the campaign, and the Canucks are one of the best teams in the NHL.
Vancouver embarked on a three-game Eastern Conference road trip a few days ago. They're 1-1 and concluding the trip with Sunday's contest against the Montreal Canadiens.
Many have overlooked the Habs early this year, but don't make that mistake in this one. With that in mind, here's our expert prediction for Canucks vs. Canadiens.
It took the Canucks just 13 games to reach 10 wins this season, a benchmark that took 25 games a season ago. However, their success appears to be rooted in unsustainable metrics, suggesting that some losses could be on the horizon.
Vancouver is suffocating opponents with its 5-on-5 scoring. The Canucks rank first in the NHL with a 65.5% actual goals-for rating, tallying 36 goals with a 13.0% shooting percentage. However, those metrics are somewhat misleading when reconciled with their production analytics.
The Pacific Division contenders rank 27th in scoring and high-danger chances, averaging just 19.3 and 7.6, respectively. As expected, limited production is negatively impacting Vancouver's expected goals-for rating as the Canucks have put together the sixth-worst mark in the league. That leaves over a 20.0% difference between actual and expected, implying the Canucks are regression candidates.
Scheduling constraints also impact Vancouver's chances against the Habs. The Canucks are playing on the second night of a back-to-back and it's also their third game in four nights. Worse, all three outings have come on the road, meaning travel is compounding an already condensed schedule.
The Canadiens are also playing on consecutive nights, but they're coming into this battle with much better analytics. Montreal has outplayed four of its past six opponents, relying on improved defensive zone coverage and limiting chances against.
The Habs' defensive metrics have been second to none lately. Montreal has held all but two of its past six opponents to six or fewer high-danger opportunities, with a rolling average of 7.3. Those stats look even better when adjusted for opponent. The Canadiens held some noteworthy opponents to sub-optimal performances, including the Vegas Golden Knights, Tampa Bay Lightning, Detroit Red Wings and Boston Bruins.
Improved defensive structure hasn't come at the expense of offense production. The Habs have been out-chanced in high-danger chances just once over the six-game sample and are attempting 9.2 quality opportunities over that stretch. Still, we are expecting improved output from the Canadiens over their coming games, as they've put up below-average shooting percentages in five of six. Improved production should yield increased output, and the Habs are progression candidates in that regard.
Canucks vs. Canadiens
Betting Pick & Prediction
A correction phase is inevitable following the Canucks' unsustainable start to the season. Saturday's loss to the Maple Leafs could be the start of a more significant trend over the coming weeks.
Moreover, the Canadiens handled their goaltending situation more appropriately than their counterparts. Montreal reserved primary netminder Jake Allen for tonight's contest, whereas Vancouver elected to start Thatcher Demko on Friday.
That's yet another factor that we're weighing in our play, deferring to the home underdog Montreal Canadiens. Take anything higher than +125.
Pick: Canadiens +140 | Play to +125
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