NHL Odds, Prediction, Preview: Capitals vs Kings Pick (Wednesday, November 29)
Via Juan Ocampo/Getty Images. Pictured: ordan Spence #21 and Adrian Kempe #9 of the Los Angeles Kings talking during the second period against the Montreal Canadiens at Crypto.com Arena on November 25, 2023 in Los Angeles, California.
Capitals vs. Kings Odds
| Capitals Odds | +168 |
| Kings Odds | -205 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 +112/ -138 |
Here's everything you need to know about Capitals vs. Kings on Wednesday, Nov. 28 – our expert NHL prediction and preview.
In Wednesday's nightcap, the Los Angeles Kings host the Washington Capitals. Los Angeles has fared well in this matchup over the past couple of seasons, winning two of the previous three meetings.
Will the Kings take care of business once again, or can the Capitals pull off the upset on the road?
Let's preview the NHL odds and make a Capitals vs. Kings prediction.
After rattling off a big winning streak in the middle of November, Washington has regressed over the past week with two straight losses to the Edmonton Oilers and San Jose Sharks, the two basement dwellers of the Pacific Division. Things won't get any easier as the Caps hit the road to visit the Kings, who currently sit in second place in the Pacific Division.
We shouldn't be too shocked that the Capitals are crashing down back to earth, especially considering their underlying metrics. At 5-on-5, Washington ranks 22nd in the league in Expected Goals For per 60 minutes (xGF/60) and 24th in Expected Goals Against per 60 minutes (xGA/60).
This team is terrible on both ends of the ice, which makes Darcy Kuemper's life difficult in net. Through 10 starts this season, Kuemper is 4-4-2 with an .894 save percentage.
To be fair, he has not really held up his own end of the bargain either. Out of the 36 goaltenders to start at least 10 games this year, Kuemper ranks 26th in Goals Saved Above Expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5-on-5.
While Washington is one of the worst teams in the league in terms of analytics, Los Angeles is on the completely opposite end of the spectrum. At 5-on-5, the Kings rank fourth in xGF/60 and first in xGA/60.
That means they rank first in Expected Goal Differential per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, which is leaps and bounds better than Washington's 26th-place ranking. With this dominating play at even strength, it is not surprising that Los Angeles has won each of its past five games and seven of its past nine.
Six of those seven wins came by at least a two-goal margin.
Not only will the Kings boast advantages both offensively and defensively, but they also boast one in net as Cam Talbot is slated to take the crease on Wednesday. Through 14 appearances between the pipes this season, Talbot is 10-3-1 with a stellar .931 SV% and 2.02 GAA.
I mentioned above that Kuemper ranks 26th in GSAx/60 at 5-on-5 among the 36 goaltenders to start at least 10 games. Talbot ranks 10th in the same category.
Finally, over his past three starts against the Caps, Talbot is 2-0-1 with a .921 SV% and 2.29 GAA.
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Capitals vs. Kings
Betting Pick & Prediction
There really is not a single aspect of the game where Washington has looked better than Los Angeles this season. On the macro level, the Kings are stronger offensively, defensively and in net.
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On the micro level, they are also stronger in the face-off circle, on special teams and at controlling possession. I rarely like to lay -1.5 on a favorite, but -1.5 at +125 odds is too good to pass up in this spot.
That line is available both at FanDuel and bet365, the only two shops that have it five to 15 cents longer than the rest of the market.
Pick: Kings -1.5 (+125 | Play up to +110)
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