NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Capitals vs Panthers (Thursday, February 8)
(Photo by Michael Mooney/NHLI via Getty Images) Pictured: Matthew Tkachuk.
Capitals vs. Panthers Odds
| Capitals Odds | +225 |
| Panthers Odds | -280 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 +112o / -138u |
Here's everything you need to know about the Washington Capitals vs. Florida Panthers on Thursday, Feb. 8 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
Two mighty Eastern Conference foes take to the ice Thursday night for a pivotal showdown with playoff implications.
The Washington Capitals have fallen out of favor in the Metropolitan Division, sitting seventh and seven points back of the Detroit Red Wings for the final Wild Card berth.
The picture for the Florida Panthers isn't as dire, but they have their own mountain to climb in the Atlantic Division. Florida sits five points back of the Boston Bruins for the top spot in the Atlantic Division and home-ice advantage throughout the playoffs.
Recent outings suggest one team has a pronounced edge in this one. The betting market has shifted in favor of the hosts, but the line still undervalues the Panthers' chances at home Thursday night.
Let's take a closer look in our Capitals vs. Panthers preview and prediction.
Analytically, the Capitals are one of the worst teams in the NHL, and they've substantially outperformed their metrics. So far this season, Washington has compiled the sixth-worst expected goals-for rating at 46.1%.
Somehow, it has failed to match that very attainable benchmark with its actual ratings, posting a 42.8% percentage and ranking third last in the NHL. What's implicit in those metrics is increased reliance on special teams scoring to get the Capitals up to their 0.531 points percentage.
That's not even as bad as it gets. We've also seen deteriorating metrics over the Capitals' recent sample. Washington has come up short of its season-long expected goals-for rating more recently, posting a disastrous 44.3% benchmark over its past five games.
The Capitals weren't exactly facing a murderer's row of top competition either, with only the Dallas Stars and Colorado Avalanche ranking on the elite end of the spectrum.
Goaltending hasn't been exceptional, but the Capitals are limited by their ineffective offense. Over their last eight games, Washington has mustered a laughable eight goals at 5-on-5, posting a 5.5% shooting percentage. Even if it climbs back up to its season average of 7.5%, that's not going to yield more wins.
The Capitals need to find a way to maximize scoring, but that's unlikely to change with their current metrics. Washington ranks in the bottom seven in scoring and high-danger chances, perpetuating its lackluster offense until significant changes are made.
Want to get in on the NHL betting action in the Tarheel State? You’ll soon be able to join in on North Carolina sports betting with the state expected to come online in March.
After acquiring Matthew Tkachuk ahead of last season, the Florida Panthers have transformed themselves into an NHL juggernaut. Over that stretch, the Panthers have compiled the fourth-best expected goals-for rating in the league, to go along with a 0.598 points percentage.
Better yet, Florida has found a sixth gear over its recent sample.
The Panthers have been steamrolling their competition of late. The Atlantic Division hopefuls have put up game scores above 60% in six of their previous 10, compiling a jaw-dropping 59.5% expected goals-for rating. However, that success is contradicted in their outcomes. The Panthers are 5-3-2 over that stretch, putting together an actual goals-for rating of 48.1%.
A few other metrics are propping up the Panthers as progression candidates. Their PDO has dropped to 0.979 over that same 10-game sample, with scoring accounting for most of those issues.
The Panthers have failed to record a goal at 5-on-5 over their last three games, dropping their 10-game shooting percentage to 5.2%.
As a team, Florida is earmarked for positive regression as outcomes start to reflect its on-ice dominance.
Capitals vs. Panthers
Betting Pick & Prediction
Analytically, these teams are polar opposites. The Capitals are failing to ice a competitive roster on most nights, consistently getting outplayed at 5-on-5.
Conversely, the Panthers are flourishing, maintaining their standards as one of the analytics darlings of the NHL.
This price has moved off the opening, and it will likely continue to shift until puck drop. We're playing the Panthers moneyline at -250 or better, but those prices are starting to disappear. Get on the hosts sooner rather than later to maximize value.
Pick: Panthers (-230 at BetRivers)
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