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Friday NHL Odds, Pick, Prediction: Washington Capitals vs. Dallas Stars Betting Preview

Friday NHL Odds, Pick, Prediction: Washington Capitals vs. Dallas Stars Betting Preview article feature image
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Gregg Forwerck /NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: John Carlson

  • The Stars host the Capitals on Friday night as home favorites.
  • The Capitals will be looking for momentum as they have been reeling without several key players in the back end.
  • Nicholas Martin breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.

Capitals vs. Stars Odds

Capitals Odds -110
Stars Odds -110
Over/Under 5.5
Time 9 p.m. ET
TV ESPN+
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

Having finally righted the ship on the road by winning four straight, the Stars will return home to the friendly confines of American Airlines Center, where they have dominated with a 14-4-1 record.

They will host a team moving in the opposite direction in the Capitals, who have lost three of four as they continue a free-fall down the Metropolitan Division standings.

Can Dallas build on its excellent home mark here?

Washington Capitals

The Capitals have fallen into a rare scoring lull, scoring just 2.14 Goals For per game over their last seven contests. They average 3.12 xGF/60 on the season, and they were notably snake bitten in front of goal against San Jose last time out when they were unable to finish some simple redirections and hit two posts.

This is a team whose talented back end helps drive much of the offensive play. The Capitals have often played with far less talent up front this season with key forwards consistently out of the lineup.

It’s no surprise that this scoring lull has coincided with losses to Dmitry Orlov, John Carlson, and Nick Jensen, who go a long way in driving the offensive play from the back end.

They should have all three back in the mix here for this one, and although the defensive play continues to be concerning, this is a roster which should continue to put together above average offensive results.

Vitek Vanecek will likely draw the start here, and he has quietly played well of late with a .923 Save % over his last five starts. He has a -2.1 Goals Saved Above Expected rating with a .912 Save % in 22 games played this season.

Dallas Stars

Dallas bounced back after a shocking 5-3 home loss to the Canadiens by taking advantage of a very soft four-game road trip. Dallas picked up victories over Buffalo, Detroit, Philadelphia, and New Jersey, posting a 55.32 xGF% with three regulation wins.

Prior to that trip, depth scoring was failing to contribute enough for the Stars, but their 4.5 Goals For per game on that trip were reassuring. However, all four of those teams have allowed a ton of goals of late to all competition. Furthermore, the top trio of Hintz/Pavelski/Robertson still carried most of the weight production wise, factoring in on 73% of the goals over that trip.

Goaltender Braden Holtby should have his sights set on playing against his former team and should get the start. He has posted a 0.9 Goals Saved above Expected rating with a .917 Save % in 21 games played this season.

Capitals vs. Stars Pick

This is a massive spot for the Capitals, and I think this is a sneaky good spot for them to trend out of a notably bad stretch of play with their key play-driving defenders all back in the lineup. They should find better offensive form against a Stars team that has quietly allowed a nearly identical xGA/60 rate over the last 11 games to the Caps, at 2.57 and 2.55, respectively.

Just as I speculated Dallas;’ road record would trend closer to average after their last road loss in Tampa, the same should go for their home record, and I’m not afraid of some perceived massive home ice advantage here. We should see those numbers run closer in line after 82 games.

This game opened as a pick-em, and I would play the Caps from the current line of -110 down to -125. If there is any line movement, I would expect the line will improve for Washington with how people will view this matchup right now.

Pick: Washington Capitals Moneyline -110

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