NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Coyotes vs. Avalanche

Coyotes vs. Avalanche Odds

Mercifully, the Arizona Coyotes season comes to an end in a few short weeks, but not before a Friday night matchup against the Colorado Avalanche.

Analytically, the Yotes have been one of the worst teams in the league this year. A downward spiral has compounded those issues over the past few weeks. Somehow, though, Arizona has strung together some favorable outcomes, despite their ineffective play. That leaves them on a collision course with regression as actual metrics balance with expected.

Here's my take on the matchup and a betting pick for Coyotes vs. Avalanche.

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Arizona Coyotes

The Coyotes are an impressive 4-2-1 over their last seven games, getting past some playoff-caliber squads. Still, they've been outplayed in five of those contests, with a cumulative 44.5% expected goals-for rating. The Desert Dogs are getting outplayed on both ends of the ice, and scheduling could compound their troubling analytics.

Across that seven-game stretch, Arizona has out-chanced its opponents in high-danger chances just twice. Worse, they've failed to surpass nine quality opportunities in all but one of those contests, averaging 7.7 per game. Their atrocious offensive play is matched by sloppy defensive zone coverage. The Coyotes' opponents have attempted at least ten such chances in four of seven, including three of their last four.

Sadly, those metrics are trending in the wrong direction, as each of Arizona's last two opponents has put up 12 quality opportunities. Both outings came on a back-to-back, with only one day rest before the Coyotes take on the Avs.

That leaves them in a flat spot as they compete with some of the top teams in the Western Conference, playing three games in four nights, with travel for every matchup. If we thought they looked out of sorts against the Edmonton Oilers, they could look even more lost on Friday.

Colorado Avalanche

We've seen a less consistent version of the Avalanche this season, but they continue to build momentum toward the end of the season. Colorado is 6-1-0 over its last seven games, recording at least five goals in four of those contests. Considering the state of the Coyotes' defense, and their surging offensive metrics, we're anticipating an outburst at the Ball Arena.

The Avs are north of 12 high-danger chances in each of their past two games, making it three times over their previous six outings they met that threshold. More impressively, the Avalanche have out-chanced their opponents in all but one of those games, posting a 59.6% high-danger chance rating. Similarly, they've eclipsed 30 scoring opportunities in half of those games, with a 57.9% benchmark. That efficient play will make it hard for the struggling Coyotes to keep pace.

Scheduling-wise, the Avs are in a much better position than their counterparts. Colorado has spent the week at home, enjoying the luxuries and comfort of home ice. Additionally, they should be fresh for this Central Division matchup, as three of their last four games came against non-playoff teams. That should help the Avalanche maintain their elite play as they welcome another lower-tier squad to their hostile environment.

Coyotes vs. Avalanche Pick

This is the first night of a home-and-home series between these franchises and the second time these teams have met since March 11. The Avalanche escaped with an overtime victory last time out, but we're expecting a less obstructed path to victory in this one.

We're backing the Avs as hefty home chalk, but you wouldn't be wrong for making a play on the puck line.

Pick: Avalanche -400 | -1.5 Puck Line (-165)