Devils vs Maple Leafs Odds: NHL Preview, Prediction

Tuesday, March 26

7:30 p.m. ET

ESPN+

Devils Odds	+121
Maple Leafs Odds	-145
Over / Under	6.5 -120/ +100

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NHL odds here.

Here's everything you need to know about the New Jersey Devils vs. Toronto Maple Leafs on Tuesday, March 26 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.

Devils vs Maple Leafs odds have Toronto as a -146 favorite on the moneyline while the over/under is set at 6.5 total goals. The over has been the bet to make when the Devils and Leafs have squared off over the past couple of seasons — it is 5-3 across their past eight meetings. I'm riding this trend for my Devils vs Maple Leafs prediction for Tuesday night.

Let's dive into why I believe we will see yet another high-scoring affair as I make a Devils vs Maple Leafs pick and prediction.

Goaltender Jake Allen is slated to guard the cage for New Jersey, and he should be a good fade candidate. Putting together a mediocre campaign, Allen is 9-14-3 with a .898 SV% and 3.31 GAA.

These woes are likely to continue against Toronto, a team he is 0-1-1 against through his past two starts with a fade-worthy .880 SV% and 4.80 GAA. There were an average of 8.5 total goals scored per game across those two outings.

It certainly won't help Allen's cause that he plays behind a blue line that bleeds High Danger Scoring Chances. Entering this matchup, the Devils rank 24th in the league in Expected Goals Against per 60 minutes (xGA/60).

Subsequently, they rank 26th in Goals Allowed per game. However, goal support should be in store for Allen and company as New Jersey ranks in the top third of the league in Goals Scored per game, Shots on Goal per game, Power Play Percentage and Shooting Percentage.

Based on the Devils' underlying metrics, regression is unlikely as they rank sixth in Expected Goals For per 60 minutes (xGF/60).

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New Jersey's offensive dominance is likely to continue against the Maple Leafs, a team that also ranks in the bottom half of the league in Goals Allowed per game, Shots on Goal allowed per game, Penalty Kill Percentage, Penalty Minutes Taken per game and xGA/60. Goaltender Ilya Samsonov backs up this defensively poor group, and he has struggled to deal with the product in front of him this season.

Through 34 starts, Samsonov possesses a .889 SV% and 3.12 GAA. He has now allowed three or more goals in seven of his past 10 starts.

With that said, Samsonov, like Allen, should expect plenty of goal support as Toronto ranks in the top eight of the league in Goals Scored per game, Shots on Goal per game, Power Play Percentage and Shooting Percentage. Also like the Devils, offensive regression is unlikely as the Leafs rank fourth in xGF/60.

They have now scored three or more goals in six of their past seven games.

Practically every variable that I look for when handicapping this game points toward the over. Both goaltenders are below average, both blue lines bleed High Danger Scoring Chances at a high rate, and both offenses are elite.

There is just so much firepower in this game between the likes of Auston Matthews, Jack Hughes, William Nylander and Nico Hischier. Those names are capable of putting up seven goals just among themselves against Allen and Samsonov, two goaltenders who have struggled recently against tonight's opponent.

I already talked about Allen earlier, but Samsonov has also allowed three or more goals in three straight starts against New Jersey, posting a .899 SV% and 3.62 GAA over that stretch. There were seven or more total goals scored in all three of those games.

Pick: Over 6.5 (-105 at DraftKings | Play to -110)

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