NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Flames vs Golden Knights (Saturday, January 13)
Photo by Len Redkoles/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Jonathan Marchessault.
Flames vs. Golden Knights Odds
| Flames Odds | -104 |
| Golden Knights Odds | -115 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 +114o / -140u |
Here's everything you need to know about the Calgary Flames vs. Vegas Golden Knights on Saturday, Jan. 13 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
The Calgary Flames have a lot of ground to make up in the Western Conference Wild Card race, and even more so if they hope to catch the frontrunners in the Pacific Division.
Thankfully, they've turned a corner with their recent efforts, winning five of their past seven. Calgary can further its cause in both playoff races with Saturday's tilt versus the Vegas Golden Knights.
It's been a tough stretch for the Golden Knights lately. Vegas has dropped seven of their last 10, giving way to the up-and-comers in the division.
The Knights kicked off a five-game home stand with a much-needed overtime win over the Boston Bruins and will be looking to carry that momentum into their showdown against the Flames.
A string of diminished efforts has precipitated a move against the Knights in the betting market; however, we should see progression from the hosts as they settle into the comforts of home for the next couple of weeks. The same can't be said for a Flames team whose metrics are failing them.
The Flames needed to get a few wins under their belts and some momentum working in their favor. Although they've accomplished those goals, it's not coming from a sustainable place. Calgary has substantially outperformed its metrics, implying that regression is an inevitable part of the path forward.
Over their last six games, the Flames have outplayed their opponents just once. Calgary scraped together a 53.9% expected goals-for rating against the lowly Chicago Blackhawks, falling below 50.0% in the five other contests.
Altogether, they've put together a lackluster 43.4% expected goals-for rating across the six-game sample.
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Defensive zone structure is a limiting factor for the Flames. Calgary is getting steamrolled in its own end, giving up 10 or more high-danger chances in all but one of their last six.
Again, the only team that failed to reach double-digits was the Hawks. But even with the three quality opportunities Chicago mustered, the Flames are still giving up an average of 10.2 over that stretch.
We also can't look past Calgary's troublesome scheduling. The Flames started the new year with a four-game road trip, returning home for just one game before embarking on another mini-two-game road trip this weekend.
That means this will be their seventh straight game in a different arena, with virtually no downtime at home. Surely, a condensed travel schedule will compound their eroding metrics.
The Golden Knights' recent metrics haven't been as pristine as we expect them to be, but they also haven't been as bad as the Flames.
Vegas has stumbled over the last few weeks but has seemingly turned a corner with their more recent efforts. The Pacific Division contenders have outplayed two of their last four opponents, resulting in a cumulative 47.1% expected goals-for rating.
For comparison, the two weeks prior to that, Vegas was operating at a 44.6% threshold.
Overall, the Knights aren't as bad as their recent metrics imply. Vegas sits 12th in the league in expected goals-for rating on the season, and a five-game home stand should help them get back that standard.
One area where we're starting to see improvement is in the Knights defensive zone. Over their previous four contests, Vegas has limited its opponents to an average of 9.5 high-danger chances per game.
In the six preceding outings, that number was up to 12.2. However, both numbers are deviations from their season-long benchmark of 8.8.
Renewed defensive responsibility helps the Knights return their metrics to their former glory, bringing more wins with it.
Flames vs. Golden Knights
Betting Pick & Prediction
Neither team has looked exceptional over their recent samples. Granted, the Flames have more wins, but they don't have the metrics to prop up ongoing success.
Conversely, the Golden Knights are starting to turn the page with their more recent efforts.
Scheduling is another critical factor, tilting the odds in favor of Vegas. The Knights are settling in for an extended home stand, whereas the Flames haven't stopped moving in 2024.
At this price, the data supports a play on the Knights in this one. We're backing the Golden Knights as -146 chalk, but would back them up to -165.
Pick: Golden Knights ML (-146)
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