NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Flames vs Kraken (Saturday, November 4)
Gerry Thomas/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Jordan Oesterle #82 of the Calgary Flames
Flames vs. Kraken Odds
| Flames Odds | +105 |
| Kraken Odds | -126 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 +108 / -132 |
An offseason regime change hasn't yielded the positive results the Calgary Flames were hoping for. The Flames have fallen flat on their collective faces, opening the season with a near-catastrophic 2-7-1 record. Still, their start isn't nearly as bad as their record implies. Calgary has been a respectable analytics team, putting together better metrics than most others in the league.
Included in that bunch is the Seattle Kraken, who rank just below their Pacific Division rivals in expected goals-for rating, albeit with a superior 4-5-2 record. The Kraken have points in four of their past six, but their luck could be coming to an end against the Flames.
Here is my Flames vs Kraken prediction.
There is a growing disconnect between the Flames' expected and actual metrics, putting them on the precipice of a breakout. As noted, Calgary is operating with 54.3% Corsi and 50.2% expected goals-for ratings, ranking eighth and 15th in the NHL, respectively. They've been adequate on both ends of the ice, posting positive relative metrics in shots and high-danger chances but falling just below the 50.0% threshold in scoring chance rating. All things considered, metrics point toward a team that should have more than two wins through their first ten games of the year.
However, the bottom falls out when reconciling those benchmarks with actual output. The Flames' actual goals-for rating at 5-on-5 is nearly 20.0% lower, sitting at an abysmal 32.5% and dropping Calgary to 29th in the standings. It's not one part of their game letting them down, either. The Pacific Division basement dwellers have the worst save percentage and third-worst shooting percentage among all NHL teams.
This is how we know that things will start improving for the Flames. Calgary's PDO is a league-worst .927, implying there's nowhere to go but up. Moreover, they've hit double-digit high-danger chances in 7-of-10 so far this season but have recorded multiple 5-on-5 goals just four times.
All signs point toward improved output, and Seattle could be the team to facilitate that progression.
You might not recognize it from their recent string of successes, but the Kraken are hemorrhaging chances against right now. Five of their last seven opponents have recorded at least ten high-danger chances, with four of seven totaling 22 or more scoring opportunities. Still, that influx of chances hasn't resulted in more goals against. Kraken netminders are stopping 93.1% of shots at 5-on-5 and 90.3% overall.
In doing so, both goalies have inflated their save percentages beyond normal ranges. Joey Daccord has never posted a save percentage above 90.0%, posting a career average of 89.1%; however, he's operating at 91.2% currently. Likewise, Philip Grubauer has stopped 89.2% of shots over his last two seasons with the Kraken but has elevated that mark to 90.9% this year. The inverse relationship between increased high-danger chances against resulting in a better save percentage puts Seattle's goalies on an inevitable path with regression.
Further, Seattle doesn't have the offensive firepower to offset the anticipated goaltending correction. Seattle is just ahead of the Flames in terms of shooting percentage, finding the back of the net on 6.0% of shots at 5-on-5 and 8.0% overall. Worse, they sit in the bottom half of the league in quality chances, attempting a dismal 7.8 per game.
Flames vs. Kraken
Betting Pick & Prediction
Calgary might be an auto-bet over the coming weeks as outcomes start to reflect their above-average performances, provided they stay at underdog pricing. That's the case when they travel to take on the Kraken, and we're here for it. We're taking a stance on the Flames at +110 but would play this line at any number plus money.
Pick: Flames ML(+110 via BetMGM)
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