NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Flames vs Lightning (Thursday, March 7)
PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA – FEBRUARY 27: Steven Stamkos #91 of the Tampa Bay Lightning celebrates his third period goal with teammates on the bench against the Philadelphia Flyers at the Wells Fargo Center on February 27, 2024 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Len Redkoles/NHLI via Getty Images)
Flames vs. Lightning Odds
| Flames Odds | +130 |
| Lightning Odds | -155 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -105 / -115 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Calgary Flames vs. Tampa Bay Lightning on Thursday, March 7 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
Tonight's interconference NHL matchup between the Calgary Flames and the Tampa Bay Lightning is set to be an interesting clash, as two of the league's competitive teams face off.
This game, set at Tampa Bay's Amalie Arena, presents two teams with unique strengths and weaknesses on the opposite ends of the ice. Let’s delve into the advanced metrics and strategic nuances and find an intriguing betting opportunity.
The Flames have exhibited a balanced approach throughout the season. Offensively, they find themselves ranked 16th in Corsi, indicating an average ability to control the puck and generate shots.
However, their 24th ranking in expected goals (xG) and high danger chances suggests a struggle to convert these opportunities into high-quality scoring chances. This lack of offensive firepower could be a critical factor in today's game against a resilient Lightning defense.
Defensively, the Flames have been more robust, with their metrics revealing a solid unit capable of limiting opponent opportunities. Ranking 15th in Corsi Against and 12th in xG Against, they've shown competence in restricting the flow of shots and high-quality chances against them.
Starting goaltender Jacob Markstrom, standing 14th in save percentage and 2nd in goals saved above expected, has been a stalwart between the pipes, providing Calgary with a reliable last line of defense. His performance will be pivotal in keeping the Flames competitive in this matchup.
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The Lightning, on the other hand, have also demonstrated a balanced game, with slight edges that could tilt this matchup in their favor. Offensively, they're closely matched with the Flames, holding the 14th spot in Corsi and ranking slightly better in xG and high danger chances.
This suggests that while they may not dominate puck possession, they're slightly more effective at creating quality scoring opportunities and capitalizing on them, a crucial element in high-stakes playoff pertinent matchups.
Defensively, the Lightning have shown resilience, ranking 12th in Corsi Against and 10th in high danger chances against. While their xG Against mirrors their offensive ranking, suggesting a vulnerability to quality shots, Andrei Vasilevskiy's presence in goal cannot be underestimated.
Despite a lower ranking in save percentage and GAA this season, Vasilevskiy's reputation and capacity for game-changing saves make him a formidable opponent for any team's offense.
Flames vs. Lightning
Betting Pick & Prediction
Taking into account the detailed analysis of both teams' performance metrics and considering the strategic dimensions of this matchup, the recommendation leans towards taking the Tampa Bay Lightning on the moneyline.
The Lightning's slight edge in creating quality scoring opportunities, combined with their home-ice advantage and Vasilevskiy's potential for standout performances, positions them as the favorable bet.
Take the Lightning moneyline and expect Tampa Bay to improve on their dominant home record of 19-8-4 against a Calgary team that is below average on the road.
Pick: Lightning ML (-155)
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