NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Flyers vs Blackhawks (Wednesday, February 21)
(Photo by Derek Leung/Getty Images)
Pictured: Petr Mrazek
Flyers vs. Blackhawks Odds
| Flyers Odds | -198 |
| Blackhawks Odds | +164 |
| Over / Under | 5.5 -130o / +110u |
Here's everything you need to know about the Philadelphia Flyers vs. Chicago Blackhawks on Wednesday, February 21 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
The under has been an immensely profitable bet when these two teams have squared off in recent years, going 13-4 across their past 17 meetings. Will we see another low-scoring affair on Wednesday?
Let's dig into the odds and make a Flyers vs. Blackhawks prediction.
Unsurprisingly, coach John Tortorella has turned Philadelphia into a tremendous defensive team. This season, it ranks in the top 12 in goals allowed per game, shots on goal allowed per game and penalty kill percentage. The Flyers also rank ninth in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) at 5-on-5.
Given that Philadelphia prevents high-danger scoring chances at an elite level, these rankings should come as no surprise. The offense, though, has not been nearly as efficient.
Entering this matchup, the Flyers rank 23rd or lower in goals scored per game, power play percentage and shooting percentage. Positive regression is unlikely since Philadelphia ranks in the bottom half of the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) at 5-on-5.
Philadelphia's offensive woes are likely to continue against goaltender Petr Mrazek, who is slated to start between the pipes for Chicago on Wednesday. Mrazek has been spectacular this season, posting a .909 SV% and a 2.99 GAA through 39 appearances.
Mrazek is currently at the top of his game, as he has allowed two goals or fewer in nine of his past 13 starts. Over that stretch, Mrazek boasts a .923 SV% and a 2.49 GAA. There have been five or fewer total goals scored in nine of those 13 outings.
In addition to Mrazek's stellar goaltending, this low-scoring trend is the result of the Blackhawks' offensive struggles. Those are likely to continue against Philadelphia's efficient defense.
This season, the Blackhawks rank in the bottom two in goals scored per game, shots on goal per game, power play percentage and shooting percentage. Their underlying metrics are just as poor, as they rank 31st in xGF/60 at 5-on-5.
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Flyers vs. Blackhawks
Betting Pick & Prediction
At this stage, some of Chicago's results are borderline unbelievable. The Blackhawks have scored just 23 goals over their past 16 games, and one or fewer goals in 12 of their past 21 games. Combine this poor offensive play with Mrazek's stellar goaltending, and it should come as no shock that there have been five or fewer total goals scored in 13 of those 21 games.
Mrazek's success is likely to continue against Philadelphia. He has performed well against the Flyers over his career, posting a .915 SV% and a 2.86 GAA in nine starts.
At the end of the day, both of these offenses are weak and six goals may be tough to come by, so I like the under at plus money.
Pick: Under 5.5 (+110 at DraftKings | Play to +105)
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