NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Flyers vs Kraken (Friday, December 29)
Pictured: Carter Hart. (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)
Flyers vs. Kraken Odds
| Flyers Odds | +106 |
| Kraken Odds | -128 |
| Over / Under | 5.5 -142 /+116 |
Here's everything you need to know about Flyers vs. Kraken on Friday, Dec. 29 – our expert NHL prediction and betting picks for today.
Bettors are licking their lips at the prospect of this inter-conference showdown in the Emerald City. The surging Seattle Kraken have climbed their way up the standings, moving into fourth place in the Pacific Division. That puts them within nine points of a guaranteed playoff berth and three back of the final wild card spot.
The Kraken can continue their ascent at the Climate Pledge Arena, where they host the Philadelphia Flyers on Friday night. Philadelphia enters the contest on the second night of a back-to-back amid deteriorating metrics. There are a few other factors working against the Flyers in this one, supporting Seattle is the team to beat.
Sportsbooks opened the Kraken as short home favorites, leaving an edge in backing the hosts. Let's dive into my Flyers vs. Kraken prediction.
The Flyers have had a resurgent campaign. After finishing no better than sixth in any of the last three seasons, Philadelphia currently ranks second in the Metropolitan Division. Although that success is validated in their underlying metrics, the Flyers have seemingly hit a mid-season rut. That hasn't impacted their record yet, making them prime regression candidates over their coming games.
Philadelphia is riding an impressive 7-1-2 streak into tonight's contest; however, that success is contradicted by their metrics. Across that 10-game sample, the Flyers have been outplayed in six of those contests, posting a cumulative 50.0% expected goals-for rating. Worse, they're crumbling more recently, getting outplayed in all but one of their past five, with a lowly 44.7% benchmark.
Still, the Flyers have only one regulation loss since December 3, posting a robust 61.0% actual goals-for rating over that stretch. That disconnect puts Philadelphia on the fast track with regression as actual results start to balance with expected metrics. We're betting that starts tonight, as the Flyers compete on consecutive nights with travel on the opposite side of the continent.
One of the primary differences between the Kraken and the Flyers is that Seattle's success is grounded in more sustainable metrics. The NHL's newest franchise has several factors working in their favor, all of which are amplified on home ice. The betting market hasn't taken notice yet, leaving them hovering around the opening line, but let me illuminate you into all the things that are going right for Seattle.
The Kraken's improved play is grounded in defensive responsibility. We've seen improved defensive zone coverage over their recent sample, giving opponents no room to breathe in the attacking zone. The last seven opponents to take on the Kraken have been held to nine or fewer high-danger chances, with a rolling average of 7.0. Tidy defensive zone play comes in tandem with improved offensive standing. The Kraken have surpassed 11 high-danger opportunities in five of seven, out-chancing their opponents in all but two of those contests.
Those renewed metrics correlate with improved output. Over that same seven-game sample, the Kraken have held all of their opponents to two or fewer goals at 5-on-5, with a total of five tallies against. Conversely, Seattle's offensive tides have risen with production, scoring 18 goals at 5-on-5.
Lastly, the most important metric lending itself to ongoing success is the Kraken's PDO. Despite the recent deluge, Seattle's shooting and save percentages still add up to .996, below the hypothetical average of 1.000. That implies that ongoing success is expected as the Kraken have the underlying metrics propping up their results.
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Flyers vs. Kraken
Betting Pick & Prediction
Reconciling the Flyers' expected metrics with actual reveals a team that is headed toward an impending correction phase. Philadelphia has been consistently outplayed for the last month but has rocketed up the standings.
Conversely, the Kraken's run of improved play is grounded in solid analytics, supporting more wins should follow.
We're using tonight's battle as an opportunity to back an undervalued home side at a rock bottom price by taking the Kraken on the moneyline. Take the best price you can get, but I'd play this anywhere up to -150.
Pick: Kraken ML (-128)
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