NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Flyers vs Penguins (Sunday, February 25)
(Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images). Pictured: Sidney Crosby.
Flyers vs. Penguins Odds
| Flyers Odds | +145 |
| Penguins Odds | -170 |
| Over / Under | 6 -105o / -115u |
Here's everything you need to know about the Philadelphia Flyers vs. Pittsburgh Penguins on Sunday, February 25 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
With less than two weeks to go ahead of the trade deadline, the Pittsburgh Penguins have to decide if they're buyers or sellers. Heading into Sunday's matinee against the Philadelphia Flyers, the Penguins sit nine points back of the final wild-card spot, needing to leapfrog four teams to get there.
Those external pressures aren't being applied to a Flyers squad that is comfortably sitting third in the division. Philadelphia is seven points clear of the Washington Capitals, coincidentally also sitting nine ahead of the Penguins.
Still, the Flyers have to contend with issues of their own. They come into Sunday's intra-state rivalry game on the second night of a back-to-back after turning to primary netminder Samuel Ersson on Saturday. That puts them at an even more pronounced deficit heading into their clash against the Penguins.
Philadelphia is coming off consecutive above-average performances. The Flyers deserve credit for showing up at home against the New York Rangers on Saturday, but they were expected to steamroll the Chicago Blackhawks the game before that. Prior to that, it was a mixed bag of results for the Flyers.
In the seven preceding games, the Flyers were outplayed on four occasions, putting together a cumulative 50.9% expected goals-for rating. The more concerning trend was their underwhelming defensive zone coverage. Four of the seven teams they faced over that stretch accumulated 10 or more high-danger chances. Those defensive concerns are only amplified playing as the visitors on the second night of a back-to-back.
Moreover, that will put a lot of undue pressure on probable starter Cal Petersen, who has looked unimpressive in four appearances with the Flyers, posting an .890 save percentage and 3.00 goals against average. Even worse, he's posted -9.0 goals saved above expected throughout his career, including -1.4 in limited action this season.
The Flyers mishandled their goaltending situation this weekend. With deteriorating defensive metrics, that decision-making could come back to haunt Philadelphia on Sunday.
It's do-or-die time for the Penguins. Pittsburgh is desperately trying to extend its competitive window with Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, but there's some work to do over the last two months of the season. Thankfully, it has responded with renewed efforts over its recent sample, turning to improved defensive zone coverage to keep it in games.
The Penguins have been a staunch defensive team all season, but that strength is even more pronounced more recently. On the year, Pittsburgh sits top 12 in scoring and high-danger chances allowed, yielding the 11th-fewest expected goals-against at 5-on-5.
More impressively, they've improved on those lofty standards as they try to fight their way back into the playoff picture. Over their previous five contests, the Penguins have limited all but one of those teams to nine or fewer high-danger chances. Likewise, scoring opportunities have been in short supply, with only one team exceeding 23 chances. Pittsburgh's respective averages of 8.6 and 21.8 over that stretch are improvements over their season-long benchmarks of 10.2 and 22.1.
Predictably, those improved defensive efforts correlate with more robust expected goals-for ratings, with the Penguins outplaying four of their last six opponents.
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Flyers vs. Penguins
Betting Pick & Prediction
There are too many factors working against the Flyers in this one. First, they mismanaged their goaltending usage. Second, they are starting to show cracks defensively. Lastly, the Flyers are skating on the second night of a back-to-back, compounding both of those issues.
Although things aren't looking great for the Penguins, their analytics support things should be going better than they are. Pittsburgh has improved its on-ice product, and better results should follow. Sunday's contest is the ideal spot to back the Penguins. Their actual results should start to reflect expected metrics, and that correction should start against a disenchanted Flyers squad.
Depending on where you shop, this line has moved all over the place. We're taking the best price available, but we'd play it up to -175.
Pick: Penguins ML (-152 via BetRivers; Play to -175)
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