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Golden Knights vs. Ducks Pick, Prediction, Moneylines: Lay it With the Favorite

Golden Knights vs. Ducks Pick, Prediction, Moneylines: Lay it With the Favorite article feature image

Shea Theodore. Credit: Jonathan Kozub/NHLI via Getty Images.

  • The Vegas Golden Knights are a big favorite over the Anaheim Ducks on Friday night (8 p.m. ET, ESPN+).
  • Vegas started sluggish but pulled off a road upset over the Avalanche on Wednesday, inspiring some hope in the market.
  • Get our Knights vs. Ducks pick and preview below.

Ducks at Golden Knights Odds

Ducks Odds +215
Golden Knights Odds -260
Over/Under 6o-106
Time 8 p.m. ET
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

Only two points separate the Vegas Golden Knights and Anaheim Ducks in the Pacific Division standings, but the gap in advanced metrics is much more substantial. The Golden Knights are in a much better spot than the Ducks on Friday night, and the betting line should continue to shift in their favor.

Vegas Golden Knights

The Golden Knights have been more efficient on home ice, and that should help them against a Ducks squad playing on the second night of a back-to-back.

Vegas has attempted 12 or more high-danger chances in all four home games, averaging 14.3 per game. The Knights have been trending higher in relative metrics over the recent home games, out-chancing each of their past two opponents in shots and scoring opportunities across all strengths, with a Corsi rating above 55.3%.

Despite the solid relative metrics, the Golden Knights have dropped both games, losing three of four on home ice this season. There are two indicators that we can rely on to support the Knights that are due for progression.

First, Vegas has the sixth-worst PDO in the league, thanks to their third-worst shooting percentage. Secondly, the Knights expected goals total is well above actual, both of which indicate Vegas shooters are due for a few favorable bounces.

There is a disconnect between the Knights’ production and output metrics, implying the Knights should see increased output.

Anaheim Ducks

The Ducks continue to build around their young core, and that inexperience is reflected in their metrics. Heading into action on Thursday, the Ducks had one of the worst expected goals-for percentages in the league, thanks to some questionable defensive metrics.

Anaheim’s opponents have attempted at least 12 high-danger and 30 scoring chances in four of their past five games. Leaving their goalies high and dry isn’t paying off as the Ducks goalies had combined to allow 19 goals against in the four games leading up to Thursday’s contest.

Now, the Ducks will have to compete against a Golden Knights team flying high at home and due for offensive production on the second night of a back-to-back with travel. Anaheim does not have the firepower to keep pace with the Knights, attempting seven or fewer high-danger chances in four of their past six.

Ducks vs. Golden Knights Pick

These teams are heading in opposite directions. The Golden Knights are finding their rhythm offensively and are due for a breakout performance. The Ducks can’t keep pace with the competition, giving up more chances than nearly every other team in the league.

This is a collision course that has Knights victory written all over, probably by a convincing margin.

Pick: Golden Knights -260, Golden Knights -1.5 +104

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