NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Golden Knights vs Kings (Saturday, October 28)
Christian Pietersen/Getty. Pictured: Cam Talbot.
Golden Knights vs Kings Odds
| Golden Knights Odds | -106 |
| Kings Odds | -113 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 +100 / -122 |
Fate loves irony. At least that's what the Vegas Golden Knights must be telling themselves after Friday night's 4-3 overtime loss to the expected basement-dwelling Chicago Blackhawks. That was the Knights' first loss of the season, albeit they maintained their point streak by collecting the overtime single at home.
Vegas has a quick turnaround, heading to the City of Angels for a Pacific Division showdown against the Los Angeles Kings. Like their visitors, the Kings are coming into Saturday's tilt on the second night of a back-to-back, though with better underlying metrics.
This betting line has taken different turns depending on where you shop, but one team has a pronounced analytics advantage in this one.
Seven wins to open the season is nothing short of spectacular; however, some of the shine wears off when adjusted for opponent. The cumulative record of all seven teams they've faced to open the season (Vegas has already played Chicago twice) is 20-26-5, with only two of those opponents posting winning records. Moreover, the Golden Knights have played most of their games at home, not venturing east of the Central time zone. Those factors make their underlying metrics look a lot worse.
You would expect the best record in the NHL to be backed up with solid analytics, but that's not the case with the Knights. Vegas sits in the bottom half of the league in expected goals-for rating, posting a sub-optimal 49.2% benchmark. It's not like one or two bad games are tanking their standing either. The Knights have been outplayed in four of eight outings despite taking on some of the worst teams the NHL has to offer.
That dichotomy between expected and actual values has backed Vegas into an inevitable reckoning with regression. At five-on-five, Vegas has an actual goals-for rating of 60.0%, over 11.0% higher than expected. Their loss to the Blackhawks is a sign of things to come as Vegas comes back down to earth after an unsustainable start to the campaign.
The Kings might not have as many wins as the Golden Knights, but they are light years ahead of their divisional foes analytically. LA leads the NHL with a 57.3% expected goals-for rating, outplaying their opponent in all but one of their outings this season. Unlike their opponents, Los Angeles has accomplished the feat while navigating one of the most daunting schedules in the league. Granted, the Kings have used home ice to their advantage to solidify their standing.
Saturday's contest against the Knights will be LA's fifth home game through their first eight games of the season. Over that stretch, the Kings have out-chanced their opponents in high-danger opportunities in every game, with a positive Corsi rating in all but one of those outings. Not surprisingly, the Kings have output to match that elite production, recording the most goals at five-on-five despite playing in only seven games.
Moreover, Los Angeles has the defensive metrics to match, playing with more defensive integrity than virtually any other team. The Kings have limited opponents to six or fewer high-danger chances in 6-of-7, holding opponents to a minuscule average of 5.4 opportunities per game. Scoring chances are equally scarce, with LA maintaining its league-best ranking by giving up an average of just 17.7 each time out.
Golden Knights vs. Kings
Betting Pick & Prediction
It might not be reflected in the standings, but the Kings are the best team in the Pacific Division. Neither team has a scheduling advantage, with both coming in on the back-end of consecutive nights played. Still, Los Angeles has a significant analytics advantage that it will wield unmercifully against the Knights.
This line has moved in favor of the Kings, meaning you'll have to shop elsewhere to extract maximum value. According to current odds, BetRivers has LA lined as +102 home dogs, and that price isn't worth passing up.
Pick: Kings ML (+102)
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