NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Golden Knights vs Maple Leafs (Tuesday, February 27)
(Photo by Zak Krill/NHLI via Getty Images). Pictured: Auston Matthews.
Golden Knights vs. Maple Leafs Odds
| Golden Knights Odds | +140 |
| Maple Leafs Odds | -165 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 +100o / -120u |
Here's everything you need to know about the Vegas Golden Knights vs. Toronto Maple Leafs on Tuesday, February 27 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
It hasn’t been easy of late for the Golden Knights, who are hobbling. They’re currently battling a three-game losing streak, including a brutal 7-3 loss at home against Toronto. This will be a crucial game for Vegas, as Edmonton is catching up to them in the Pacific Division.
There is no team hotter than the Toronto Maple Leafs right now. They’re on a seven-game winning streak, including a 4-3 win in Colorado on Saturday. Despite the hot stretch, Toronto is still six points behind second place in the powerful Atlantic Division.
Let's get to our Golden Knights vs. Maple Leafs prediction and pick.
We still won’t see Jack Eichel for Vegas, and captain Mark Stone is now on IR. To carry the load, Jonathan Marchessault has picked it up with goals in two straight to bring his tally to 30 goals for the season. William Karlsson has also generated five points in his last four games. However, the Knights will need more out of players like Nicolas Roy and Ivan Barbashev.
Since returning from the All-Star break, Vegas has been dreadful at 5-on-5 offense. It’s played to a 28th-best 43.68 xGF% (expected goals), and defensively has been just as bad at a 3.63 xGA/60.
In the last 10 games, the Knights haven’t been very good on the power play either, only scoring at a 15.4% clip. The penalty kill, though, is a different story at 84.2%.
The last time these teams squared off Thursday, Toronto lit up Logan Thompson, and Adin Hill had to show up in relief. I think we’ll see Hill on Tuesday. He’s suffered three straight losses in three starts and has played to an .874 SV% in his last four games. Throughout the year, he’s played incredibly with a .927 SV% and a 16.5 goals saved above expected (GSAx), so let's see if he gains back some steam.
These Leafs are really on a tear. On Saturday, Auston Matthews ended his five-game goal streak, but William Nylander has 13 points in his last seven games and Mitch Marner has 21 points in his last 10. Toronto is very top heavy, but this three-headed monster may be enough to carry it over the hump.
Toronto’s 5-on-5 play has been elite this month, and it shouldn’t be a surprise given the hot streak. It’s played to a 57.05 xGF% and a 2.85 xGA/60.
The power play is nearly unstoppable. Over the past 10 games, the Leafs have scored at a staggering 53.8% pace. However, the penalty kill has suffered, only succeeding 75% of the time.
It seemed as if Toronto found its man in net, but then Joseph Woll found himself on LTIR. Now, both Ilya Samsonov and Martin Jones have split starts, and I think we will see Jones on Tuesady. He’s been the better goalie of the two even though his last eight games haven’t been strong. He’s playing to a .907 SV% this season and a 6.7 GSAx.
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Golden Knights vs. Maple Leafs
Betting Pick & Prediction
There’s trouble brewing in Sin City, and it won’t get better until at least Eichel comes back. The way the Knights have played on the offensive end has made them hard to pick, let alone against a juggernaut in Toronto.
Conversely, the Leafs have played nearly perfect in every facet of the game. They have outclassed the Knights at 5-on-5 play and the power play, and demolished them at home where Vegas is usually dominant.
Until further notice, I’m putting my trust in the Leafs. While goaltending isn’t a strength, the juggernaut that’s Matthews, Marner and Nylander is too much to handle. I’m picking Toronto in regulation.
Pick: Toronto Maple Leafs 3-Way ML at +100
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