Golden Knights vs Predators Odds: NHL Preview, Prediction
Ethan Miller/Getty Images. Pictured: Luke Schenn #2 of the Nashville Predators and Michael Amadio #22 of the Vegas Golden Knights
Golden Knights vs. Predators Odds
| Golden Knights Odds | +120 |
| Predators Odds | -140 |
| Over / Under | 6.0 -125 / +105 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Vegas Golden Knights vs. Nashville Predators on Tuesday, March 26 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
The Western Conference's wild card teams clash in an end-of-March affair that will undoubtedly shape the first-round playoff matchups.
Heading into Tuesday's inter-divisional battle, the Nashville Predators sit three points clear of the Vegas Golden Knights for the first wild card spot. Nashville has been the most dominant team in the league over the past few months, operating on a mind-numbing 15-0-2 streak.
Vegas hasn't been so lucky. The Golden Knights have struggled to compete, faltering to an 8-10-1 record since the middle of February. That leaves them just five points clear of the St. Louis Blues for the final playoff berth.
For some reason, the betting market is selling the Predators short. But with underwhelming metrics and a troublesome schedule, we're not expecting the Golden Knights' luck to change on Tuesday.
Let's dig into my Golden Knights vs. Predators prediction.
Vegas has just started to get its metrics in order. After a stretch of lackluster performances, the Golden Knights have finally started to tilt the ice in their direction.
The defending Stanley Cup Champions have outplayed their opponents in five straight contests, yielding a 64.5% expected goals-for rating. However, those efforts are built on faulty metrics, and Vegas is due for a reckoning.
The Knights' recent performances look a lot worse when we adjust for opponent and venue. Four of their five outings game in their friendly confines or T-Mobile Arena, and only one of those contests came against a playoff team. But it gets even worse. Two of those games were the second nights of back-to-backs for the Knights' opponents.
We always knew the odds were stacked in the house's favor, but this end-of-season schedule is stacked in Vegas' favor.
Moreover, the Knights offense hasn't generated any meaningful production. They've been held to nine or fewer high-danger chances in all but one of those outings, exceeding 22 scoring chances just twice. Although they're starting to win more games, the Golden Knights are scoring fewer goals and getting diminished production.
The Golden Knights aren't as good as their analytics imply. Skating on the second night of a back-to-back will compound those issues as they take on the top team in the NHL.
Nashville's torrid pace is validated by league-leading metrics – a fact the betting market appears to be dismissing. Since starting their points streak on Feb. 17, the Predators have also asserted themselves as the top analytics team over that stretch.
The team's 57.4% expected goals-for rating is over 100 points higher than the next closest team, and the Preds show no signs of slowing down.
Predictably, the team's ascent is grounded in sustainable metrics. Nashville has outplayed all but three of its opponents across the 17-game sample, taking on the best the NHL has to offer. The Preds have signature wins over the Florida Panthers (3-0), Winnipeg Jets (4-2), Colorado Avalanche (5-1), Los Angeles Kings (4-1) and the same Golden Knights (5-2) squad that they face on Tuesday.
What's inherent in all of those results is lights-out goaltending and unrelenting defensive pressure.
Juuse Saros has been sensational and a cornerstone of the Predators' success. He has allowed just three goals at 5-on-5 over his last four starts, contributing to a 94.4% save percentage.
Of course, his teammates are doing their part to limit the pressure he's facing. Nashville has allowed more than nine high-danger chances just once over its last 17 games, limiting opponents to an average of 6.4. Somehow, they've elevated that play even further, more recently, giving up an average of 5.0 over their last four.
Nobody has cracked the Predators' defensive shell, and an underperforming Golden Knights' squad playing on consecutive nights doesn't have the antidote.
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Golden Knights vs. Predators
Betting Pick & Prediction
Based on our analysis, there are two plays worth making in this one. First, Nashville is much better than the betting line implies.
They've beaten teams unmercifully and have the metrics and goaltending propping up sustained success.
On the other side of the ice, we see a Knights team that has posted above-average metrics mostly as a result of taking on lesser-than opponents.
Still, both teams have exhibited elite defending, lending itself to a low-scoring game on Tuesday night.
As a result, we're playing Under 6 at plus-money and backing the Predators at -150 or better.
Picks: Predators (-140 at bet365) | Under 6 (+105 at Caesars Sportsbook)
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