NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Islanders vs Ducks (Sunday, March 10)
SAN JOSE, CALIFORNIA – MARCH 7: Ilya Sorokin #30 of the New York Islanders stretches during a time out in the second period against the San Jose Sharks at SAP Center on March 7, 2024 in San Jose, California. (Photo by Andreea Cardani/NHLI via Getty Images)
Islanders vs. Ducks Odds
| Islanders Odds | -230 |
| Ducks Odds | +190 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 +100o / -120u |
Here's everything you need to know about the New York Islanders vs. Anaheim Ducks on Sunday, March 10 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
The Islanders have won five straight in pursuit of a playoff berth, but they can't afford to slow down now or underestimate Anaheim, which gave them a hard time in their last meeting. Let's examine the upcoming contest and offer an Islanders vs. Ducks preview.
The Islanders were never expected to be a major offensive threat this season. There was hope going into the campaign that Mathew Barzal and Bo Horvat would mesh well in their first full campaign with each other, and that's largely proven to be the case — Barzal has 20 goals and 66 points through 61 contests while Horvat has 25 goals and 56 points across 61 games.
New York was also counting on Brock Nelson to have another strong season, and in that regard, the Islanders also got their way. The 32-year-old has 28 goals and 54 points through 62 appearances.
Even still, the Islanders went into the campaign knowing that they didn't employ many scoring threats beyond those three in their forward corps. Sure, they probably hoped Anders Lee was doing a bit better than he has, but his disappointing 28 points (17 goals) across 62 contests isn't the problem.
In the end, New York's lack of depth has left the squad tied for 18th in goals per game with 3.06, which is about as good as the Islanders should have hoped for.
Going into the season, many would have thought that kind of output would have been good enough for New York anyway. The Islanders have an amazing goaltender in Ilya Sorokin, who was supposed to lead them to the playoffs if his teammates managed to be even mediocre offensively.
That's the part that hasn't played out as expected for New York this season — at least until recently.
Sorokin had a 17-13-11 record, 3.14 GAA and .908 save percentage across 41 outings through Feb. 24, which led to the Islanders being seven points back in their pursuit of the second wild-card spot. The 28-year-old has gotten into a rhythm, though, winning his past five starts while allowing just 10 goals on 126 shots (.921 save percentage).
That's the kind of goaltending the Islanders took for granted last season, and it's a level of play the Ducks would have an extremely difficult time dealing with.
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Anaheim managed to at least challenge the Islanders in a 4-3 loss Dec. 13, but the Ducks team that'll face New York now is even worse. Adam Henrique and Sam Carrick each found the back of the net against New York in that game, but they're both employed by Edmonton following a trade Wednesday.
Henrique was one of just four Anaheim players with at least 40 points, so his loss in particular will be felt. Meanwhile, the Ducks are also missing Trevor Zegras (ankle).
Anaheim ranks 30th this campaign with 2.62 goals per game, so even if the Ducks were at full strength, they'd struggle to get much past a hot Sorokin. With what's left, this could get sad.
Maybe Lukas Dostal will have a strong start, allowing Anaheim to steal a game they might have otherwise lost. It certainly does happen. Dostal saved 52 of 55 shots en route to a 4-3 victory over New Jersey on March 1 and he nearly pulled that off Jan. 3 when the netminder turned aside 55 of 57 shots in a 2-1 overtime loss to Toronto.
Anaheim's defense tends to break down, allowing an average of 33.2 shots per game — tied for fourth-most in the league — but Dostal has a respectable 7-6-1 record in contests in which he's faced at least 35 shots. Even still, despite the infrequent heroics, this has not been a good campaign for the goaltender. He's 10-16-1 with a 3.51 GAA and a .904 save percentage in 30 contests.
The defense in front of him is partially to blame for those terrible numbers, but Dostal's goals saved above expected is minus-1.7, which suggests that the netminder has been subpar even independent of his dreadful teammates.
Islanders vs. Ducks
Betting Pick & Prediction
Given the state of the 23-37-3 Ducks, it's no surprise that the Islanders are considered significant favorites on the moneyline. When your best hope is that your 3.51 GAA goaltender plays out of his mind, you know things are bad for your team.
With Sorokin hot and the Islanders in desperate need of wins, I'm comfortable recommending New York on the puck line where the spread is 1.5 goals in favor of Anaheim.
Pick: Islanders -1.5 (+130 | Play to +105)
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