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NHL Odds, Pick & Preview: Islanders vs. Kraken (February 22)

NHL Odds, Pick & Preview: Islanders vs. Kraken (February 22) article feature image
Credit:

Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Ilya Sorokin

  • The Kraken beat the Islanders earlier this month in New York.
  • The Islanders are favored in the rematch in Seattle, but where can you find value?
  • Continue reading for a full breakdown of the matchup, including a betting pick.

Islanders vs. Kraken Odds

Islanders Odds -140
Kraken Odds +120
Over/Under 6
Time 10 p.m. ET
TV ESPN+
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

The Islanders head in to Climate Pledge Arena looking to avenge a 3-0 loss to Seattle in the first-ever showdown between these club’s earlier in the month.

Will New York be able to respond against a Kraken team that has struggled on home ice and is playing in the second game of a back-to-back?

Islanders Hoping for Better Results

It’s been just eight months since the Islanders gave the Tampa Bay Lightning all they could handle in last year’s postseason, but things have surely changed a great deal, and Sunday’s 3-2 shootout loss to the Canadiens is a firm testament toward that.

Over the last 10 games, the Islanders have just a 3-6-1 record, but a 52.52 xGF% suggests things could have gone somewhat better.

There are some clear causations to the regression: down years offensively for some key pieces, aging veterans not able to produce the same play and a lot of minutes for Zdeno Chara on the second pairing. But this group is still capable of far better play, and should be able to comfortably outplay the Kraken.

Sunday’s loss to the Canadiens was a well-played effort and simply a matter of Montreal being in better form right now, and the Islanders are hoping tonight for something more like last week’s effort in Boston, a 4-1 victory.

The Islanders have been very resilient during Barry Trotz’s tenure, and I expect them to keep their heads held high and bounce back with a big effort against some very manageable competition.

Ilya Sorokin has been great this season, with a +1.5 goals saved above expected rating and a .921 save % throughout 32 games played this season.

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Kraken Having Disappointing Debut

It’s been a disappointing inaugural season for the Kraken, who just past the midway mark are now playing for nothing but pride, and to perhaps raise the value of their pieces who could be appealing deadline additions.

The Kraken’s forward core never appeared likely to be any sort of strength,  and has produced the league’s 27th-ranked offensive output so far this season.

That always figured to be the Kraken’s weakness, but given that their greatest strength was expected to be the play of a goaltending duo of Philipp Grubauer and Chris Driedger, the results have been treacherous.

The Kraken enter this one with the league’s fifth-worst goal differential at -47, and although the Kraken continue to post expected goals results that suggest they shouldn’t be this awful, I can’t imagine much of a turnaround is coming with the continued combination of struggles we have seen.

With Driedger having started Monday against Vancouver, we should see Grubauer get the start here.

Grubauer was strong Saturday vs Calgary, but his season has seen consistent struggles, with a -26.8 goals saved above expected rating and .887 save % in 38 games.

Islanders vs. Kraken Pick

I don’t love to buy into narratives like this too much, but this sets up as a massive spot for the Islanders. Look for them to come out with a ton of urgency after an embarrassing home loss to Montreal last time out, and having seen this Kraken team shut them out earlier this month.

More importantly than that, New York are simply a better team when in full flight.

Should the game run closer than anticipated, Sorokin gives the Islanders a considerable edge in goal over Grubauer.

The Islanders are, as of this writing, plus money to win in regulation, and at +110 that line presents a ton of value. The number will likely edge down closer to puck drop, but I’d be comfortable playing this to -110.

Pick: Islanders 3-Way (Regulation) Moneyline +110 (Play to -110)

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