Islanders vs Sabres Odds: NHL Preview, Prediction
(Photo by Rob Curtis/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) Pictured: Brock Nelson.
- Greg Liodice previews Thursday night's Islanders vs. Sabres game
- Both teams have been playing well, but Liodice sees clear value and suggests a +225 puck line bet.
Islanders vs. Sabres Odds
| Islanders Odds | -115 |
| Sabres Odds | -105 |
| Over / Under | 6.0 -110o / -110u |
Here's everything you need to know about the New York Islanders vs Buffalo Sabres on Thursday, March 14 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
Prior to the shutout loss against the Kings on Monday, the Islanders were riding a six-game winning streak. It seems like coach Patrick Roy has finally gotten to his team as they’re playing tremendous hockey.
Don’t look now, but Buffalo is quietly making a playoff push. After going 6-3-1 in their last 10 games, the Sabres are now five points out of the playoffs. Who holds that final playoff spot? Their opponents tonight in the Islanders.
This is going to be a pivotal game, so let’s dive in to our Islanders vs. Sabres preview and prediction.
For years now, it feels like this Islanders roster has hardly changed. But they’ve been consistent. Mathew Barzal is averaging over a point per game and is on pace to break his career high in goals, while defenseman Noah Dobson is fifth in the league in assists and is a potential Norris Trophy candidate. They’ve also received consistency from goal-scorers Brock Nelson and Bo Horvat.
In this recent 10-game stretch, the Islanders’ 5-on-5 play has been elite. They’ve ranked first in both expected goals with a 60.2 xGF% and a 2.28 xGA/60.
Special teams in these last 10 games are inverted from the season. The power play has only scored at a 15.2% clip, while the penalty kill –which was abysmal all year — has now succeed 82.6% of the time.
Goaltending seemed to be a strength for the Islanders at the start of the season, but the crease has felt some pressure all season. Luckily in this stretch, Ilya Sorokin has played better in net, playing to a .920 SV% in his last six starts. However, his GSAx is down this season at 3.0, so he’s prone to letting in a clunker here and there.
What’s been an underrated addition over the trade deadline was Buffalo acquiring Bowen Byram. The young defenseman has three goals in his three games with the team. But Buffalo’s recent success has also been a collective effort. The Sabres have a myriad of high-end goal scorers in Jeff Skinner, Tage Thompson, Alex Tuch and JJ Peterka.
The Sabres’ offensive 5-on-5 play has certainly struggled. Since Feb. 21, they’ve played to a 47.28 xGF%. Luckily, the defensive end has held strong at a 2.93 xGA/60.
Buffalo’s power play has really picked up to make up for its 5-on-5 struggles. It’s scored at a 27% pace lately, but the penalty kill has struggled at 67.9%.
Another reason for this success is the play from Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen. In his last 10 starts, he’s played to a strong .923 SV%, as well as boasting a 10.3 GSAx over the season. Luukkonen has started the majority of the games this season, so I don’t expect to see backup Eric Comrie.
Islanders vs. Sabres
Betting Pick & Prediction
New York has performed exceptionally well at even strength, whereas the Sabres have struggled primarily on the offensive end. To that end, I see both special teams canceling each other out, and doubt it makes much of an impact.
Prior to the loss, the Islanders won five straight games by a margin of two goals or more. Buffalo’s recent pattern is a little inconsistent, and it still has a lot of unpredictability in its game. While I really like the talent on the Sabres, they’ve proven time and time again they’re not ready for the big time. There’s a lot of momentum for them to make a playoff push, but I’m not ready to trust them.
The Islanders, while older, know how to win important games, and have a shrewd bench boss behind them. I think they’ll get back on the wagon and win big tonight.
Pick: New York Islanders Puck Line +225
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