NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Jets vs Avalanche (Thursday, December 7)
Matthew Stockman/Getty Images. Pictured: Kurtis MacDermid #56 of Colorado Avalanche
Jets vs. Avalanche Odds
| Jets Odds | +126 |
| Avalanche Odds | -152 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 +110 / -134 |
Two of the best the Central Division has to offer take to the ice at Ball Arena on Thursday night as the Colorado Avalanche host the Winnipeg Jets.
The Jets come into this intra-divisional battle with back-to-back wins and victories in seven of their last 10.
Conversely, the Avs have dropped three of their past four, albeit with two of those losses coming in overtime or a shootout.
Those contrasting records may have resulted in the bookmakers opening this line too low, but the underlying metrics reveal a much different perspective on how these teams are performing. That leaves a playable edge in backing the home side in this one.
Let's take a look at the Jets vs. Avalanche prediction with odds and two betting picks.
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Winnipeg's success begins and ends with Connor Hellebuyck.
The Vezina-winning goalie has been a stalwart again for the Jets this season, leading the team to victory in 11 of his 18 games played.
Those efforts have been on full display across his recent sample but also put him on the precipice of regression as he teeters on his unsustainable balance.
Hellebuyck has won four of his previous six starts, posting a mind-numbing 94.8% save percentage and 1.50 goals-against average.
Impressive? Yes. Sustainable? Not in the least bit.
Hellebuyck's potential regression is analogous to the team as a whole. The Jets have been substantially outplayed over their recent sample, but they've still claimed victories thanks in large part to their netminder.
As Hellebuyck works his way back toward career norms, though, wins will start drying up for the Jets.
Over that six-game sample in which Hellebuck has stood on his head, the Jets have been outplayed in all but two of those contests. Worse, their cumulative expected goals-for rating plummets to 45.5%.
Those deficiencies will be exposed on the road against one of the best teams in the league. Even Hellebuyck won't be able to save them in this one.
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It's been a tough run, but don't let their recent slide deter you; Colorado remains one of the top teams in the NHL, and they have the underlying metrics to back it up.
Although they've struggled at times over the past couple of weeks, the Avalanche have posted the sixth-best expected goals-for rating on the season. Moreover, we've seen an uptick in production and underlying metrics, suggesting their cooling-off period has come to an end.
Colorado has outplayed two of its previous three opponents, tilting the analytics in its favor. Over that modest sample, the Avs have out-chanced their opponents in scoring and high-danger chances in two of three, simultaneously tidying up their defensive zone coverage.
During that span, opponents have been held to a total of 27 high-danger and 64 scoring opportunities, with respective averages of 9.0 and 21.3.
That should be the Avs' standard for the foreseeable future as they settle in for a six-game homestand. Colorado has been unforgiving at home, and not for reasons you may expect.
The Avs get a lot of credit for their offensive firepower, but they've gotten the better of their opponents with suffocating defensive zone coverage. So far this season, opponents have mustered an average of 7.9 quality chances and 18.9 scoring chances at Ball Arena.
That doesn't bode well for a Jets team that is in the midst of deflated production.
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Jets vs. Avalanche
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Jets have flown up the standings, and Connor Hellebuyck has been the captain of that flight. As his metrics correct, he'll fall back down toward career averages, hurting Winnipeg's probability of winning.
It may not come to an immediate halt, but expect Hellebuyck's save percentage and goals-against average to falter.
The Avalanche also play with a defensive edge at home, leaving Winnipeg's anemic offense fewer opportunities to keep pace. Consequently, goals may be hard to come by in tonight's Central Division showdown.
We're taking a stance on two plays tonight for Jets vs. Avalanche.
First, we're betting the Avalanche get the better of their guests. As such, we're backing them as moderate home favorites up to -165.
Second, goals will be at a premium. Even with correction from Hellebuyck, he should still play well enough to hamper the Avs. Further, the Jets don't have the ability to breakthrough Colorado's structure. The total has ticked up to 6.5, so we'll take the under for tonight.
Picks: Avalanche (-145 at Caesars) | Under 6.5 (-134 at FanDuel)
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