NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Jets vs Kings (Wednesday, December 13)
Jonathan Kozub/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Goaltender Connor Hellebuyck #37 of the Winnipeg Jets
Jets vs. Kings Odds
| Jets Odds | +154 |
| Kings Odds | -185 |
| Over / Under | 6 -108 / -112 |
Scheduling will be a factor when the Los Angeles Kings host the Winnipeg Jets on Wednesday night.
LA returns home after spending the past week on the Eastern seaboard, a road trip in which the Kings went 2-1-1 with two of those contests going to overtime.
The Jets have to contend with their own turbulence as they continue on their California tour, playing on the second night of a back-to-back.
Wednesday's showdown with the Kings will be Winnipeg's final stop on their road trip, and they'll be looking to head home with their heads held high.
Neither team's analytics has been particularly sharp, but the Jets made a plus-expected-value decision on Tuesday night, and LA finds itself in a classic letdown spot.
A lot of Winnipeg's success is owed to Connor Hellebuyck. The American netminder has backstopped the Jets to a 13-6-1 record, offsetting some underwhelming team metrics along the way.
For the fifth time in six seasons, Winnipeg sits in the bottom half of the league in expected goals-for rating. Over that same stretch, Hellebuyck has posted a 91.6% save percentage, leading the NHL in saves in all but two of those campaigns.
This has been the Jets' MO for the last few seasons, and they remain competitive, thanks in large part to Hellebuyck.
If anything, Winnipeg deserves some credit for how it handled its goaltending situation on this back-to-back.
Rick Bowness started backup Laurent Brossoit on Tuesday night against an inferior San Jose Sharks squad, reserving Hellebuyck for the third-ranked Kings. The theory behind a move like this is that it allows the primary goalie to be rested to offset any potential shortcomings from a tired roster.
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That's not the only factor working in the Jets' favor in this one, though.
We've seen a modest uptick in Winnipeg's production metrics, supporting increased output over its coming games. The Jets have eclipsed 11 high-danger chances in three of their last six games with a rolling average of 9.8, above its season-long benchmark of 9.8.
Still, we've seen a slight decline in Jets' scoring despite the increased productivity, with the team's 5-on-5 shooting percentage dipping to 8.0% over the six-game sample. We're anticipating a reversal of fortune over the next few outings as output catches up with production.
Anticipated progression in goal-scoring and sustained success from Hellebuyck should keep the Jets competitive on Thursday night.
At first glance, it's a seemingly team-friendly scheduling spot for the Kings. LA hosts a well-traveled Jets squad as they compete on the second straight night; however, the Kings have their own scheduling deficiencies to worry about.
Los Angeles returns home after an Eastern Conference roadie, playing its first game at home in over a week.
For West Coast teams, this is typically a flat spot as their players' circadian rhythm adapts to the fluctuating time zones. We've seen it already from the Kings this season, losing to the Pittsburgh Penguins on home ice after returning home from an Eastern Conference road trip.
Of course, there are other variables to consider. Most prominently, the Kings have seen a deterioration of their underlying metrics lately. LA has been outplayed in two straight, posting a combined 46.5% expected goals-for rating.
Moreover, they are getting sloppier in their own end. Opponents have attempted 11 or more high-danger chances in four of the Kings' previous eight games, a steep departure from their season-long average of 7.1.
Lastly, we're also getting scared off the Kings by their regressing offense. Los Angeles had a productive week at the end of November, scoring on 12.5% of shots at 5-on-5 over a four-game span. In the six games since then, LA's shooting percentage has predictably fallen back down toward normal ranges, falling to 5.9%.
That's unlikely to improve against the Jets' stalwart Connor Hellebuyck, particularly when we factor in the flat spot in their scheduling.
Jets vs. Kings
Betting Pick & Prediction
Early money has come in on the Kings, but it's undeserving action. LA's offense is sputtering, and those scoring concerns are amplified by deteriorating defensive metrics.
Conversely, Winnipeg played its analytics cards correctly, reserving primary goalie Hellebuyck for Wednesday night's contest.
Factor in anticipated progression from their offense, and we have a recipe for backing the Jets as underdogs.
Altogether, this is an ideal spot to back the visitors. However, I wouldn't be surprised if it takes overtime for the Jets to secure the win, so we'll tack on a bet that the fight ends in a regulation draw, as well.
Picks: Jets (+160 at DraftKings) | 60-Minute Tie (+370 at DraftKings)
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