NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Kings vs Oilers Game 5
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Kings vs. Oilers Odds
| Kings Odds | +160 |
| Oilers Odds | -190 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 +105 / -125 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Los Angeles Kings vs. Edmonton Oilers on Wednesday, May 1 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
The stakes are high as the Los Angeles Kings face off against the Edmonton Oilers in a crucial Game 5 of their first-round Stanley Cup Playoffs series. With the Oilers leading 3-1 in the series, the Kings are under pressure to win on the road and extend the series. Los Angeles has underperformed thus far in this series with Edmonton dominating in many aspects.
Will the Oilers continue their dominance and close out the series, or will the Kings show a sudden resurgence and force another game back in Los Angeles?
Throughout the regular season, the Kings showcased an elite offense, evidenced by their high rankings in Corsi% (fourth) and xG% (third). In the playoffs, they've maintained a strong offensive presence, ranking second in Corsi% and sixth in xG%.
However, their power play has significantly faltered, and they have failed to score a goal on 11 opportunities. That's a critical factor in why they're in this 3-1 hole, so Los Angeles will need to turn it around in this high-stakes elimination game.
Defensively, the Kings entered the postseason with solid stats, including a top-five ranking in expected goals against and high-danger chances against. However, they've struggled with discipline and have accrued the second-most penalty minutes in the playoffs. With a significant amount of time spent on the penalty kill, Los Angeles has allowed the most goals (eight) while shorthanded.
Additionally, starting goaltender Cam Talbot has seen a decline in performance, particularly in save percentage and goals against average. However, that's not entirely his fault as the Oilers star-powered offense can put pressure on even the best of defenses.
As the advanced metrics make evident, Edmonton’s offensive firepower was unrivaled during the regular season. In fact, the Oilers led the league in several key metrics, including Corsi%, xG% and expected goals for.
That prowess has somewhat cooled in the playoffs (according to puck possession), but their power play remains lethal and has converted eight goals in 15 opportunities.
Even with the Kings dominating Corsi% in this series, the Oilers, buoyed by their special teams' success, are still averaging 4.5 goals per game in the playoffs.
On defense, Edmonton has had mixed results. While its regular-season performance was strong, playoff metrics reveal some vulnerabilities, particularly in managing high-danger chances. However, over the past two games, the Oilers have turned it on defensively, limiting the Kings to one combined goal across both games.
Edmonton’s penalty kill has been perfect in the postseason (11 opportunities). Goaltender Stuart Skinner, while not top-ranked in the regular season, has improved in the playoffs, bolstering the Oilers' defensive stance with crucial saves and better-than-expected goals saved above expectation.
Kings vs. Oilers
Betting Pick & Prediction
Given the current dynamics and playoff performances, the smart bet is on the Oilers puck line (-1.5) at +134 odds at FanDuel.
Edmonton's power play efficiency, combined with the Kings' struggles on special teams, provides a significant edge. Although the Kings have fought hard, the Oilers have shown they can capitalize on their chances and have the defensive resilience to withstand pressure.
Betting on the Oilers to win by more than one goal leverages not only their statistical edges, but it also considers their momentum and home-ice advantage. The only game Edmonton lost this series was an overtime one in which Los Angeles had to score five goals to win. Meanwhile, two of Edmonton's three wins came by multiple goals.
Pick: Oilers -1.5 (+134 at FanDuel)
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