NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Kraken vs Flames (Wednesday, December 27)
Steph Chambers/Getty Images. Pictured: Vince Dunn #29 of the Seattle Kraken.
Kraken vs. Flames Odds
| Kraken Odds | +122 |
| Flames Odds | -146 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 +114 / -140 |
The NHL awakens from its holiday slumber with a robust 14-game slate on Wednesday night. Among those contests is a Pacific Division showdown, pitting the Calgary Flames against the visiting Seattle Kraken.
Both teams are trying to maintain their respective playoff aspirations. Seattle is looking to make the playoffs in consecutive years after last season's triumphant foray into the postseason. Conversely, the Flames are hoping to rebound after their disappointing fifth-place finish in which they were left outside the 2022-23 NHL playoff picture. Whichever squad emerges from this grudge match gives themselves a leg up on the competition as we race toward the halfway point of the season.
Neither team has been an analytics darling, but there are a few indicators pointing toward a low-scoring game at the Saddledome.
The Kraken have marched up the standings, thanks to a solid 4-0-2 run over the past couple of weeks. Over that stretch, Seattle has knocked off the FloridaPanthers, Los Angeles Kings, Anaheim Ducks, and Chicago Blackhawks, with their two overtime losses coming to the Dallas Stars and Kings. At first glance, those are inspired outcomes; however, there's an unsustainable component arising from Seattle's underlying metrics. The clearer trend is the Kraken's unrelenting play in their own end and solid defensive zone metrics.
Seattle has suffocated opponents in their end of the ice, limiting shots and preventing scoring opportunities. Across the six-game sample, opponents have been limited to 6.7 high-danger and 19.0 scoring chances. Moreover, not one team exceeded nine quality chances, and all but one of those squads were held to 23 scoring opportunities or fewer. It's clear that defensive zone tactics will be a key to the Kraken's game-planning moving forward. That's especially true when we consider Seattle's lackluster offensive metrics.
The Kraken have lacked firepower this season, putting forth some dismal offensive performances. They are averaging just 22.1 scoring and 8.7 high-danger chances per game, ranking in the bottom half of the league in both categories. Predictably, this has had a negative impact on scoring. Seattle has mustered the 10th fewest goals at five-on-five and the seventh-fewest overall. They have the shooting percentages to match, bottoming out at 28th and 27th, respectively.
Considering their imperfect metrics, lower scoring games will be an inevitable part of the Kraken's future.
If there's one team that can match Seattle's energy, it's the Calgary Flames. Above-average defending and an anemic offense have been a hallmark of Calgary's systems for years. We've seen them embrace that ideology over their recent sample, with the Flames turning to their preferred brand of hockey as they try to climb up the standings.
Calgary has played with renewed enthusiasm in its defensive zone. The Flames have held four of their last six opponents to seven or fewer high-danger chances, with a rolling average of 7.0. Similarly, scoring chances have been harder to come by, with opponents averaging 22.8 over the six-game sample. More importantly, this improved defensive coverage correlates with better goaltending metrics. Flames goalies have combined for a 93.9% save percentage at 5-on-5 and a 92.4% benchmark overall. With their PDO resting below 1.000, those save percentages could ratchet even higher.
We're definitely not expecting the Flames' shooting percentage to contribute to their increasing PDO. Calgary remains one of the least imposing offensive forces, bottoming out in most offensive categories. The Flames haven't attempted more than seven high-danger chances in any of their previous six contests, averaging a paltry 5.8. Likewise, scoring opportunities have been in short supply, with the playoff hopefuls scraping together 16.7 over the same six-game sample.
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Kraken vs. Flames
Betting Pick & Prediction
The under is heavily juiced in this one, and for good reason. The Flames and Kraken have tightened their defensive zone coverage more recently, with neither team boasting a quality offense. Consequently, goals should be hard to come by as this Pacific Division battle is played exclusively in the neutral zone.
We're betting this one stays under the total. If you're feeling brave, you could consider playing under 5.5 at plus-money, but we're sticking to under 6.5 at -140 or better.
Pick: Under 6.5 -140
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