NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Kraken vs Golden Knights (Thursday, March 21)
Kraken vs. Golden Knights Odds
| Kraken Odds | +160 |
| Golden Knights Odds | -190 |
| Over / Under | 6 -105 / -115 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Seattle Kraken vs. Vegas Golden Knights on Thursday, March 21 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
With 15 games left in the regular season, the Seattle Kraken's playoff hopes are on life support. The NHL's newest team sits 11 points back of the final wild card spot, needing to leapfrog four teams to unseat the Vegas Golden Knights for the eighth seed. Coincidentally, that's who Seattle is playing on Thursday night.
As it stands, the Golden Knights occupy the final playoff spot, but they're hanging on by the thinnest of margins. Three teams are within eight points of them, amplifying the pressure on the Knights. Those issues are compounded by a recent slide, in which Vegas has dropped nine of its last 13 contests.
However, the Golden Knights are settled in at home, stuck in the middle of a four-game homestand. They are just starting to get their metrics working, and that could help them secure a pivotal two points in the Western Conference playoff race.
Seattle has failed to live up to the lofty standards it set last year. And at least part of that regression was anticipated. The Kraken finished nearly five points ahead of their expected goals-for rating, compiling an actual benchmark of 56.6% above the expected total of 51.7%. They're paying for that this year and are continuing to slide in the wrong direction.
Although the Kraken have an expected goals-for rating slightly above 50.0% on the season, it's still not enough to put them in the top half of the league. Seattle enters the stretch run with a middling 50.5% mark, with their actual percentage dipping slightly below that at 50.2%. Worse, the Kraken are barely staying afloat with a string of lackluster efforts.
Over their last 10 games, the Kraken have been outplayed seven times, resulting in a disastrous 43.9% expected goals-for rating. Not only is that the third-worst benchmark in the NHL over that stretch, but Seattle's actual rating is coming in well below that. The Kraken have an abysmal 38.2% actual goals-for rating, signaling their intent to mail it in to end the campaign.
As much as we would love to see the Kraken embrace the role of spoiler, they seem intent on setting their sails for the sunset and drifting into next season.
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For a little while, the Golden Knights had us worried. Luck had seemingly betrayed the city it was sworn to protect, sending the Golden Knights into a downward spiral. But with wins in three of their past five and solid underlying analytics to boot, Vegas is poised for a late-season surge.
Objectively, the Knights look much better over their previous five games. Over that modest stretch, they've outplayed three of five opponents, exceeding the 68.1% expected goals-for rating in all three of those contests. Not surprisingly, improved defensive play has been the foundation of their analytics success. The Golden Knights have limited all but one of those teams to six or fewer high-danger chances, giving up a minuscule average of 5.8 per game.
There's also a pretty pronounced correlation between those elite efforts and playing at the T-Mobile Arena. All three of their above-average performances have come within their friendly confines. Consequently, their expected goals-for rating has jumped to 70.6% over their last three home games.
We're not expecting that to change ahead of Thursday's clash versus the Kraken. Vegas has been settled in at home for the past week, and will be well rested for this Pacific Division battle.
Kraken vs. Golden Knights
Betting Pick & Prediction
There's a lot more on the line for the Vegas Golden Knights in this one. Seattle has abandoned its postseason dreams, churning out some of the worst metrics in the league over the past month. Conversely, the Golden Knights are just starting to shift their analytics into high gear, propelling them into another postseason run.
The gambling odds reflect the Knights' downward trajectory from the last few weeks. As a result, that leaves an edge in backing the home side as they continue their assertive play on home ice.
We're getting a piece of the Golden Knights' moneyline at -180 but would take it up to -200.
Pick: Golden Knights ML (-185)
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