NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Kraken vs. Wild (March 27)
Steph Chambers/Getty Images. Pictured: Eeli Tolvanen and Vince Dunn of the Seattle Kraken
- With the season winding down, the Minnesota Wild and Seattle Kraken meet in a pivotal matchup on Monday.
- Both teams have gone to overtime in the majority of their recent games.
- Grant White has picked a side in the matchup, but as he details below, he's also got a big plus-money flier for the game.
Kraken vs. Wild Odds
| Kraken Odds | +115 |
| Wild Odds | -135 |
| Over/Under | 6 (+100 / -120) |
| Time | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
| Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here. | |
The Western Conference playoff picture evolves on a nightly basis, and tonight's matchup between the Minnesota Wild and Seattle Kraken will have profound implications.
The Wild have asserted themselves as the Central Division leaders with fewer than 10 games to go. Similarly, the Kraken are clutching to their first-ever postseason berth, sitting seven points clear of the Calgary Flames in the wild card race and just three points shy of the Edmonton Oilers for third in the Pacific Division.
Both teams are looking to bolster their positions; however, only one squad's analytics are working in its favor.
Seattle Kraken Cruising on Road
Seattle can put a stamp on its four-game road trip with a win over the Wild on Monday.
The Kraken are 2-0-1 through the first three games, knocking off one of Minnesota's top competitors in the Central, the Dallas Stars, and splitting a pair of contests with the Nashville Predators, a team chasing them for a postseason berth. More importantly, the Kraken are flourishing across that stretch and show no signs of letting up.
The NHL's newest franchise has outplayed its opponents in four straight games, usually by a substantial margin. The Kraken's expected goals-for rating has crossed the 60.0% threshold in three consecutive outings, with a cumulative 63.6% benchmark. Defense has been a hallmark of the Kraken's success, and they haven't abandoned that late in the season, but they are starting to get more out of their offense.
Production has improved lately, with the Kraken attempting at least 12 high-danger chances in each of their last two games. That makes it five times over their previous nine games in which they've hit double-digits. Scoring chances are also trending upward, with Seattle going north of 23 in six of nine. Naturally, more goals should start to follow their increased production, and that's exactly what we're seeing. The Kraken have scored four or more in three of their past four, with 17 total goals scored.
That onslaught should continue against a Minnesota side that is falling apart defensively.
Rough Times Ahead for Minnesota Wild?
The Wild are having a hard time containing their opponents lately, and it's hurting their expected outcomes.
Two of their previous three opponents have attempted at least 12 high-danger and 27 scoring chances, shifting the Wild's expected goals-for percentage downward. Minny has been outplayed in three of its past five, a span in which the team is 3-1-1. Given the state of their metrics, we've identified the Wild as regression candidates over their coming games as actual metrics balance with expected.
PDO is a combination of shooting and save percentages. The league average will always balance out to 1.000. The St. Louis Blues were the league leaders last year with a 1.024 mark. The Boston Bruins, who clinched the President's Trophy with weeks left to go, are operating more efficiently this year, posting a 1.040 mark. Over their last 13 games, the Wild have blown past that rating, posting a 1.057 PDO.
Inevitably, shooting and save percentages will balance out, and considering the Wild's recent play, that should start to happen. Minnesota has overachieved relative to its metrics, walking away victorious in games in which the team had been substantially outplayed. That should result in some tough losses over the next week as Minny's PDO works back to the normal range.
Kraken vs. Wild Pick
Points mean so much this time of year, and both teams will be happy to walk away with at least one after this Western Conference showdown.
The Wild have needed overtime in three of their last seven. Likewise, the Kraken have needed more than 60 minutes in three of their past five.
At +360, it's worth a flier that this one gets sorted out in overtime or a shootout.
Still, we also like Seattle to prevail as modest underdogs.
Pick: Seattle Kraken (+110 at Caesars)
Flier: 60-Minute Draw (+360) |
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