The Toronto Maple Leafs (27-22-9) and Florida Panthers (29-25-3) meet in the NHL tonight. Puck drop is set for 7:00 p.m. EST at Amerant Bank Arena in Sunrise, Fla. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN+.
The Panthers are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 6.5 (+102o / -122u). The Panthers are a -160 favorite to win outright, while the Maple Leafs are +135 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Maple Leafs vs. Panthers predictions and NHL picks.
Maple Leafs vs. Panthers Odds, Pick
| Maple Leafs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -191 | 6.5 +102o / -122u | +135 |
| Panthers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +157 | 6.5 +102o / -122u | -160 |
- Maple Leafs vs. Panthers Spread: Panthers -1.5 (+157 ), Maple Leafs +1.5 (-191)
- Maple Leafs vs. Panthers Over/Under: 6.5 (+102o / -122u)
- Maple Leafs vs. Panthers Moneyline: Maple Leafs +135, Panthers -160
Maple Leafs vs. Panthers Preview
Toronto Maple Leafs
The Olympics are over, so what did the NHL do to get the Maple Leafs ready to return?
Throw them into the Florida gauntlet on a back-to-back.
Cruel and unusual.
And boy, did the Leafs get smacked last night by the Tampa Bay Lightning. The score ended up being 4-2, but it was, by far, a total rout.
Toronto got severely outplayed, and had it not been for a couple of successful offside challenges, this game could’ve easily been 6-2.
Dating back to before the Olympic break, the Leafs have been playing horribly, losing seven out of their last 10. It’s a totally unspectacular roster, with a couple of high-end scorers in William Nylander and Auston Matthews.
The rest, you can pick and choose who are worthy to keep on a playoff roster.
For the season at 5-on-5 play, Toronto is playing to a bottom-10 47.97 xGF% and defensively has been getting beaten fairly easily with a 2.8 xGA/60.
Also of note, Toronto has historically been elite on the power play, and while finding its groove as of late, is still only converting at a 19.3% clip. However, through their last 10 games, the Leafs have converted on 35% of their power plays.
Expect the return of Joseph Woll tonight, after Anthony Stolarz started last night. Woll is an exceptional netminder who has been playing middling hockey as of late.
In his previous 10 starts, Woll is playing to a -1.6 GSAx and a .906 SV%. So, it’s not terrible, but he certainly could be better.
Florida Panthers
If there were ever a time to turn on the jets for the Panthers, it’s right now.
The two-time defending Stanley Cup champions are eight points out of a playoff spot with 25 games to go.
It’s been a trying season for the Cats, losing captain Aleksander Barkov to a torn ACL in training camp, and then not having Matthew Tkachuk until last month.
Ultimately, a lot of the troubles that have come with this team have been due to the goaltending.
As good as Sergei Bobrovsky has been for the six and a half years he’s been in South Florida, he’s a 37-year-old netminder who has played a lot of hockey in the past three seasons. And it’s shown in the numbers.
For the season, Bobrovsky is playing to an .871 SV% and in his previous 10 starts, a -7.9 GSAx. The difference is, I wonder if this Olympic break was huge for him and the team.
If you read my futures piece, I saw significant value to back the Panthers to make the playoffs, given their experience, talent, and the fact that Bobrovsky is coming off a three-week respite.
Maple Leafs vs. Panthers Prediction
Last night, my pick fell apart after it was ruled that Nathan MacKinnon wasn’t playing, so I’m going to test my luck in the anytime goal department one more time.
Before the Olympic break, Nylander was playing exceptionally well, with a 3.7 Goals Above Expected rate in his previous 10 games and last night had a pair of assists.
Additionally, he was great while playing for Team Sweden, notching four points in five games.
The thing about Nylander is that he’s very calculated with the shots he takes. In that 10-game stretch, he’s attempted 42 shots, and 61% of those shots have hit the net.
But what is also important to note is that a good chunk of his goals have come off rebounds, and Bobrovsky has been a rebound machine all season long.
And as of late, the Leafs have been firing the puck increasingly more as they also gear up for a playoff push.
Which is why I think Nylander may find the back of the net in this matchup.
Pick: William Nylander Anytime Goal Scorer (+190, DraftKings)
