NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Lightning vs Canadiens (Thursday, April 4)
(Photo by Michael Chisholm/NHLI via Getty Images) Pictured: Andrei Vasilevskiy
Lightning vs. Canadiens Odds
| Lightning Odds | -170 |
| Canadiens Odds | +145 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 +100/ -120 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Montreal Canadiens on Thursday, April 4 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
Lightning vs. Canadiens odds have the Lightning as -170 favorites on the moneyline, while the over/under is set at 6.5 goals. Tampa has dominated this matchup over the past half-decade, winning 19 of the past 23 meetings.
The Bolts won 12 of those 19 games by at least two goals, a trend I expect to continue as I make my Lightning vs. Canadiens prediction for tonight.
The Lightning are starting to look like a team that could contend for the Stanley Cup as they are peaking at the right time. Tampa has won nine of its past 11 games and eight of those wins have come by at least two goals.
A big reason for this recent surge has been the play of goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy, who has finally started to return to his old form. Over his past 10 starts, Vasilevskiy is 8-1-1 with a commanding .930 SV% and a 2.01 GAA.
He started last night's game against the Toronto Maple Leafs, but I believe the Lightning are going to go right back to him again Thursday as backup goaltender Jonas Johansson is nursing an injury and Tampa Bay can still catch Toronto in the standings and grab the third seed.
Vasilevskiy has also dominated Montreal throughout his career, going 15-2-2 with a .935 SV% and a 1.98 GAA. It also helps his cause that the Lightning have done a tremendous job of preventing high danger scoring chances and rank 11th in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) at 5-on-5.
Also, offensive production shouldn't be an issue as the Bolts rank in the top five in goals scored per game, power play percentage and shooting percentage.
Thursday presents a tremendous sell-high opportunity after the Canadiens beat both Colorado and Florida over the past week. Those were quality wins, but this team is still one of the worst in the league.
Offensively, Montreal ranks in the bottom 10 in goals scored per game, shots on goal per game, power play percentage and shooting percentage. Positive regression is highly unlikely as it also ranks 25th in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) at 5-on-5.
However, the Canadiens are just as poor defensively, ranking 23rd or lower in goals allowed per game, shots on goal allowed per game, penalty kill percentage, penalty minutes taken per game and in xGA/60. Subsequently, they rank 29th in expected goal differential per 60 minutes.
For comparison, Tampa Bay ranks 13th in the same category.
Lightning vs. Canadiens
Betting Pick & Prediction
There is just not a single statistical or analytical category in which Montreal beats Tampa Bay.
The Canadiens are playing on home ice in this game, but possess just a .405 win percentage on home ice. In fact, that's lower than Tampa Bay's road win percentage.
Pick: Lightning -1.5 (+146 at FanDuel | Play to +140)
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